Regional Outlook — QLD1: Thursday 6 August 2026

Queensland spot price sits at $130.51/MWh at 06:30 AEST, tracking well below yesterday evening's peak of $294.40/MWh but sitting above the overnight trough that touched $30.36/MWh around 09:15 AEST. Demand is at 6,968 MW, climbing from an overnight low near 4,580 MW as the morning ramp builds through the current period. The 24-hour trend shows a classic evening-peak, overnight-trough pattern, with prices compressing into the $85-130/MWh band through most of the trading day before this morning's renewed climb.

Generation mix is dominated by black coal at 6,139.8 MW, with gas OCGT contributing 659.8 MW, battery storage at 494.2 MW, wind at 343.8 MW, hydro at 176.2 MW, and solar at effectively zero (0.02 MW) given the pre-dawn timing. Renewable penetration sits at 12.98%, having recovered from an overnight low near 4% during the 18:00-19:30 AEST window and up from the 25-36% range seen in the small hours when wind output was stronger relative to demand. Carbon intensity is 0.7464 tCO2/MWh, down from a peak of 0.8242 tCO2/MWh in the early evening but still elevated relative to the overnight low of 0.5582 tCO2/MWh reached around 10:30 AEST yesterday.

Predispatch forecasts point to a further price rise through the morning, with 08:00 AEST tracking at $117.73/MWh and building to a forecast peak of $181.73/MWh at 11:00 AEST before easing back into the $80-130/MWh range for the afternoon. Overnight tonight, forecasts turn negative, with prices dipping to -$6.78/MWh between 04:00-05:00 AEST tomorrow — flagged in the load-shifting windows as a low-risk opportunity for flexible load, saving up to $188/MWh versus today's peak.

One active market notice is relevant to QLD grid security: AEMO reclassified a non-credible contingency event to credible status at 20:31 AEST yesterday, covering the simultaneous trip of the H11 Nebo SVC and the H11 Nebo No.1 275/132kV transformer, effective until further notice. No constraint sets have been invoked yet, but this raises the credible contingency threshold for that network element and warrants monitoring for any follow-up constraint activation affecting central Queensland transfer capability.