Regional Outlook — QLD1: Tuesday 4 August 2026
Queensland spot price sits at $116.11/MWh as at 20:30 AEST, tracking near the top of a volatile 24-hour band that ranged from -$7.16/MWh overnight (04:20) to $141.90/MWh in the early afternoon (12:15). Demand is currently 7,135 MW, up sharply from the overnight trough near 3,900 MW as evening ramp continues. The past 24 hours show a classic diurnal pattern: negative and near-zero prices through the 00:00-05:30 window on low demand and battery/hydro dispatch, followed by a steady climb into a $119-141/MWh plateau through the middle of the day and into the evening peak.
Generation mix at the current interval is dominated by black coal at 6,128 MW, with battery storage contributing 981 MW, wind at 408 MW, hydro at 170 MW, gas OCGT at 101 MW and solar negligible at 0.16 MW as the sun has set. Renewable penetration sits at 20.0%, carbon intensity is 0.7008 tCO2/MWh — both figures reflecting the post-sunset drop-off from wind and battery-supported afternoon periods where renewable share ranged from single digits (as low as 5.85% around 19:30) up to over 47% overnight when coal output eased and battery/hydro covered demand. The battery fleet's near-1,000 MW output is a notable feature of tonight's evening peak, offsetting some of the coal-led generation stack as demand climbs.
Predispatch forecasts point to continued volatility overnight and into tomorrow. Prices are expected to ease to around $76.60/MWh by 22:00 AEST tonight, then fall into negative territory from roughly 23:30 through to 06:00 AEST tomorrow (05 August), bottoming near -$10/MWh at 04:00 — consistent with low overnight demand and renewable output. From 06:30 AEST tomorrow, prices are forecast to climb quickly, hitting $121-142/MWh by mid-morning and spiking to $260/MWh at the 12:30 interval, before settling back to the $85-105/MWh range through the afternoon. This overnight window offers a clear low-cost, low-carbon load-shifting opportunity, with the load-shifting model flagging savings of up to $269/MWh versus today's peak for load shifted into the 01:00-05:30 AEST window.
On notices, an AEMO automated constraint set (CA_SYDS_59839EB2) remains active on the NSW1-QLD1 interconnector from 08:15 hrs 4 August, invoked to manage power system security in NSW — worth monitoring for any impact on interconnector flows and QLD price formation given Queensland's reliance on interconnector support during peak periods. No QLD-specific interventions or non-conformance declarations are currently active, though a QLD non-conformance event (LILYSF1, 56 MW) was recorded on 29 July and has since cleared.