Regional Outlook — QLD1: Saturday 11 July 2026
Queensland spot price sits at $60.74/MWh at 06:25 AEST, down from an overnight peak of $99.04/MWh around 07:15 AEST yesterday evening but well above the sub-$5/MWh troughs recorded through the early hours (00:35–02:00 AEST). Demand currently reads 5,894 MW, having ranged between 4,097 MW overnight and 7,427 MW at this morning's peak. The 24-hour trend shows the classic overnight demand valley followed by a steep morning ramp, with prices tracking demand closely across a $2.77–$99.04/MWh band.
Generation mix at 06:30 AEST is dominated by black coal at 5,196 MW, supplying the bulk of the 5,917 MW total. Wind contributes 420 MW, hydro 137 MW, gas OCGT 132 MW, batteries 31 MW, and solar a negligible 1 MW given the pre-dawn timing. Renewable penetration sits at 9.96%, near the lower end of today's range — it peaked near 43% around 00:30–01:30 AEST when demand and coal output were both lower, then declined steadily as coal ramped through the morning. Carbon intensity currently reads 0.787 tCO2/MWh, up from a low of 0.498 tCO2/MWh overnight, tracking inversely with renewable share.
Predispatch forecasts point to a further pullback through the morning, with prices easing to the $53–61/MWh range by 07:00–07:30 AEST before the wholesale market moves into negative territory overnight — forecasts show prices as low as -$6.50/MWh around 05:30 AEST tomorrow (12 July), driven by low demand and high scheduled renewable and hydro availability. Traders eyeing load-shifting should note five identified low-cost windows between 01:00 and 06:00 AEST tomorrow, each offering savings of $97–101/MWh versus today's peak, all rated low risk. Prices are then forecast to climb again through tomorrow morning, reaching $84–95/MWh between 08:00 and 11:00 AEST.
On notices, QLD-specific items remain historical: the Calliope River 4412 132kV circuit breaker non-credible contingency (04 July) was cancelled on 09 July, and the El Arish No. 1 132kV bus trip (10 July) was confirmed as non-credible with no load shedding and