Regional Outlook — QLD1: Saturday 4 July 2026
Queensland spot price sits at $72.31/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, tracking near the middle of a 24-hour range that swung from a negative floor of -$7.01/MWh overnight (03:35-04:00 AEST demand trough near 3,700-4,000 MW) to an evening peak of $101.79/MWh at 22:10 AEST last night. Demand currently reads 5,872 MW, up from the overnight low but still below yesterday evening's peak of 7,216 MW. The past 24 hours show the typical overnight price collapse into negative territory as demand fell below 4,000 MW, followed by a sharp ramp from $37.75/MWh at 05:35 AEST as morning demand climbed past 5,400 MW.
Generation mix at 06:00 AEST is led by black coal at 5,119.68 MW, followed by wind at 1,069.19 MW, gas (OCGT) at 132.63 MW, hydro at 111.10 MW, battery at 2.65 MW, and solar at 0.14 MW (pre-dawn). Total renewable penetration sits at 18.38%, down from levels above 40% recorded overnight (peaking near 45.6% at 23:25 AEST) as wind generation eased and solar has not yet ramped up. Carbon intensity currently reads 0.7135 tCO2/MWh, elevated from the overnight low of 0.4742 tCO2/MWh, consistent with coal's higher share of the mix as wind output recedes and demand rises through the morning.
Predispatch forecasts show prices climbing through the morning peak, reaching $95.55/MWh by 09:00 AEST before moderating to the mid-$80s through midday and early afternoon. Prices are then forecast to ease steadily from 13:00 AEST, falling to $64.55/MWh by 14:00 AEST and down to $44.30/MWh by 18:00 AEST as demand tapers into the evening. Overnight forecasts point to another deep price trough, with sub-$2/MWh pricing expected from 23:00 AEST through to 05:00 AEST tomorrow, mirroring today's pattern. Weather outlook shows solar potential lifting later in the week (11.4-14.8% average by 7-8 July as cloud cover clears to 8-15%), which should support daytime renewable output and dampen midday prices from Tuesday.
On market notices, AEMO re