Regional Outlook — QLD1: Monday 29 June 2026

The Queensland spot price sits at $93.89/MWh at 06:30 AEST, against a 24-hour average that traversed a wide range — from negative prints near -$2.50/MWh in the early hours through to a morning peak above $121/MWh around 17:00–18:00 AEST, before settling into the current $90s band as evening demand builds to 6,636 MW. The generation mix at this interval is dominated by black coal at 4,932 MW, with wind contributing 1,828 MW, gas OCGT at 500 MW, battery at 315 MW, and hydro at 115 MW. Solar has effectively rolled off to zero (0.01 MW) consistent with the winter evening period. Total renewable penetration sits at 29.4%, with carbon intensity at 0.607 tCO2/MWh — up from an overnight low of around 0.481 tCO2/MWh when wind penetration was higher and demand was lower, reflecting the increased black coal commitment as the morning peak loaded up the grid.

The predispatch outlook signals prices are heading higher before easing. The next two half-hours are forecast at $98/MWh and $110/MWh respectively (07:00 and 07:30 AEST), before dropping back to the $76–$77/MWh range by 08:00–08:30 AEST as the late-evening demand profile recedes. The morning ramp is then forecast to reassert firmly, with prices climbing through $89/MWh at 14:00 AEST, $99–$108/MWh from 15:00–15:30 AEST, and sustaining above $103–$121/MWh through the 17:00–19:30 AEST morning peak window. The predispatch peak of $130/MWh is flagged for 19:30 AEST, consistent with winter morning demand at the high end of the daily cycle. Prices are forecast to moderate from $106/MWh at 20:00 AEST back toward $80–$93/MWh through midday.

Two market notices carry direct relevance to Queensland interconnector flows today. The Balranald–Buronga X3 220kV LINE outage in NSW (constraint set N-BABU) has been extended with completion now rescheduled to 01:00 AEST 30 June, meaning the NSW–QLD1 interconnector has been operating under tightened transfer limits overnight. Separately, the Psymetrix PhasorPoint oscillation stability monitor (I-OSC_STAB_MON) was subject to a planned outage that invoked constraints on the NSW1–QLD1 interconnector; that constraint set has since been revoked following PhasorPoint's return to service, removing that limitation. AEMO also increased the cap on Very Fast Contingency FCAS local dispatch in Queensland from 250 MW to 300 MW effective 25 June, providing additional headroom for frequency response during potential islanding events — relevant context given the battery fleet is actively dispatching 315 MW into this evening interval.

For load scheduling, the lowest-cost windows today sit in the 10:00–13:00 AEST period (UTC 00:00–03:00), where predispatch forecasts $69–$73/MWh — savings of $57–$61/