Regional Outlook — QLD1: Thursday 25 June 2026

The Queensland spot price sits at $144.55/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 6,857 MW. That current price is consistent with the morning peak pattern running through the data — prices climbed from a low-$40s/MWh trough around 01:00–02:00 AEST overnight, accelerated sharply through the 15:30–17:30 AEST window (touching $171.49/MWh repeatedly), then eased through the afternoon and early evening before rebounding into the $130–$145/MWh range from 06:10 AEST. The 24-hour volume-weighted average across the price history sits in the $95–$105/MWh range, making the current print notably elevated relative to the day's mean. The generation mix at 06:30 AEST is dominated by black coal at 4,940 MW (72% of output), wind at 1,427 MW (21%), gas OCGT at 480 MW (7%), battery at 432 MW (6%), and hydro at 152 MW (2%), with solar contributing a negligible 0.08 MW in the pre-dawn period. Total metered generation exceeds scheduled demand, indicating some export flow or ancillary dispatch.

Carbon intensity sits at 0.627 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 27.1% — wind is the sole meaningful renewable contributor at this hour given zero solar output. That intensity reading is elevated versus the overnight trough, when wind penetration peaked above 50% and intensity fell as low as 0.431 tCO2/MWh around 01:25–02:00 AEST. Today's 69% average cloud cover forecast will constrain solar generation across the day, limiting the midday renewable contribution that would ordinarily soften both price and carbon intensity through the 22:00–03:00 UTC solar window. Sustainability managers targeting low-intensity intervals should note the overnight period from approximately 10:30–13:30 AEST (00:30–03:30 UTC) where forecasts indicate prices between $72.50 and $93.83/MWh and wind is likely to maintain reasonable penetration.

The predispatch curve signals two clear price elevation windows today. The morning period from 16:00–20:00 AEST (06:00–10:00 UTC) is forecast at $144.55–$188.83/MWh, with the 18:30–20:00 AEST window sustaining $188.83/MWh across three consecutive half-hours — the highest sustained forecast in the 24-hour outlook. A second spike is forecast around 22:30–23:00 AEST (12:30–13:00 UTC) reaching $210–$223.83/MWh before dropping sharply to $116/MWh at 23:30 AEST. The 08:00–10:30 AEST window (overnight AEST / early UTC) offers the lowest-cost load windows at $72.50–$80.42/MWh. Battery assets at 432 MW are active in this morning peak, consistent with charge-overnight/discharge-morning cycle economics given the overnight price trough.

The one AEMO market notice directly relevant to Queensland is the General Notice (144326) effective from 25 June 2026, which increases the cap on dispatch of Very Fast Contingency FCAS in Q