Regional Outlook — QLD1: Wednesday 24 June 2026

The Queensland spot price sits at $93.83/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 6,973 MW and rising. That current price represents a significant easing from the morning peak, which saw sustained intervals above $200/MWh between 17:00 and 19:00 AEST, with a session high of $233.01/MWh at 17:20 AEST. The overnight trough bottomed around $25.90/MWh in the early hours, giving a wide intraday spread that underscores the typical winter morning ramp pattern. The 24-hour price profile has been characterised by two distinct peaks — a sharp morning ramp from around 16:00 AEST and a secondary evening climb — both consistent with winter heating demand behaviour.

The current generation mix across 7,242 MW of dispatched capacity is dominated by black coal at 4,837 MW (66.8%), with gas OCGT contributing 765 MW (10.6%), wind at 1,463 MW (20.2%), hydro at 139 MW (1.9%), battery at 38 MW (0.5%), and solar at a negligible 0.04 MW given the pre-dawn timing. Renewable penetration sits at 22.65% and carbon intensity is 0.6564 tCO2/MWh. The carbon picture is notably cleaner than the daytime readings — intensity peaked at 0.6753 tCO2/MWh during the 07:00 AEST window and has moderated as wind output holds firm into the evening. Wind's 1,463 MW contribution is the key variable; with low wind potential forecast for today (avg 2.2 km/h), any softening in wind output during the morning peak will push the dispatch stack harder into thermal capacity.

Predispatch forecasts point to a clear and significant price spike through this morning's peak. Prices are forecast to lift sharply from $105.73/MWh at 16:00 AEST, reaching $121.11/MWh by 17:00–17:30 AEST, then accelerating to $132/MWh at 18:00 AEST, $188.83/MWh at 18:30 AEST, and $190/MWh at 19:00 AEST. The 20:00 AEST interval is also forecast at $190/MWh before prices moderate through midday. This morning's peak band (18:00–20:30 AEST) is forecast to average well above $175/MWh — traders and large energy users with flexibility should treat 11:30–12:30 AEST (forecast $54/MWh) as the optimal load window, saving approximately $136/MWh versus the morning peak. Afternoon and evening intervals from 22:00 AEST onward are forecast to ease back toward $80–$94/MWh.

Two market notices carry direct relevance for Queensland today. AEMO has confirmed that from today, 25 June 2026, the cap on dispatch of Very Fast Contingency FCAS in the QLD region increases from 250 MW to 300 MW during periods where islanding is considered credible (Notice 144326). This expands the region's frequency response envelope and is relevant for participants active in the FCAS markets. Separately, an active constraint notice (Notice 144277) relates to updated