Regional Outlook — QLD1: Monday 22 June 2026
The Queensland spot price sits at $121.11/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 6,863 MW and climbing through the morning peak. This is firmly within the elevated band that has persisted since around 04:30 AEST, when prices ramped sharply from sub-zero overnight levels. The 24-hour price profile tells a clear winter demand story: prices collapsed to negative territory between roughly 11:30–14:30 AEST overnight (bottoming at -$4.91/MWh at 14:05 AEST) before recovering aggressively through the morning ramp, touching $150.60/MWh at 16:50 AEST and consolidating around $119–$130/MWh through the current period.
The generation mix at 06:25 AEST is dominated by black coal at 5,254 MW (68.5% of total dispatch), with battery storage contributing a substantial 1,107 MW (14.4%), wind at 473 MW (6.2%), hydro at 303 MW (3.9%), gas OCGT at 298 MW (3.9%), and solar at a negligible 0.04 MW given pre-dawn conditions. Carbon intensity sits at 0.6479 tCO2/MWh, with renewable penetration at 25.33% — a material improvement from the 13–16% range recorded during the 17:00–19:00 AEST period, largely reflecting battery dispatch displacing thermal output. Weather conditions support minimal solar generation today; clear skies (1% cloud cover) and a forecast maximum of 19.9°C point to a modest solar contribution building through midday, with average solar potential of 23.5 for the day. Wind potential remains low at 0.4.
The predispatch outlook is the key signal for traders today. Prices are forecast to hold around $121–$128/MWh through 07:00–08:00 AEST before escalating sharply into the mid-morning: $163.63/MWh at 19:00 AEST, $188.83/MWh at 19:30 AEST, peaking at $224.74/MWh at 20:30 AEST (10:00 and 10:30 AEST local). This mid-morning price spike — coinciding with peak winter demand and limited solar contribution — is the standout risk window for the day. Prices are then forecast to ease through the afternoon, returning to the $84–$103/MWh range by 25:00–26:30 AEST and settling around $84.50/MWh into the 28:00 AEST period. Flexible load operators should note that the overnight trough window is forecast to repeat, with prices dropping to near $0.01/MWh between 13:00–15:00 AEST (03:00–05:00 UTC), offering optimal shift opportunities saving up to $224/MWh versus the morning peak.
On market notices, there are no active notices directly constraining Queensland interconnectors or dispatch. The Directlink (N-Q-MNSP1) control unavailability notice (144287) issued on 20 June remains active, restricting operational flexibility on the QLD–NSW interconnector — participants should factor this into any cross-border flow assumptions. A non-conformance for TARONG#4 on 21 June was brief and resolved