Regional Outlook — QLD1: Sunday 21 June 2026

The Queensland spot price sits at $116.27/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 6,538 MW. That price represents a significant step-up from the overnight trough — intervals between 01:00 and 04:00 AEST were clearing in the $36–$65/MWh range — and reflects the Monday morning ramp now underway. The 24-hour price arc has been pronounced: prices ran above $100/MWh through the morning peak (07:00–08:00 AEST saw $121–$124/MWh), eased through the midday period to the high $80s–low $100s, before climbing again into this current interval as demand builds toward the winter evening peak. Note that AEMO has flagged intervals from 06:15 to 06:35 AEST as subject to Manifestly Incorrect Inputs review under Clause 3.9.2B; those prices remain subject to change.

The generation mix at 06:30 AEST is dominated by black coal at 5,181 MW, followed by gas OCGT at 786 MW, battery at 641 MW, wind at 396 MW, hydro at 120 MW, and solar at a negligible 0.01 MW given the pre-dawn conditions. Renewables — wind, hydro, and solar combined — are contributing 515 MW, or approximately 16.2% of supply, up from the ~9–10% penetration recorded through the afternoon and evening hours when wind output was lower and solar had dropped out. Carbon intensity sits at 0.7118 tCO2/MWh, an improvement from the 0.77–0.78 tCO2/MWh range recorded between 13:00 and 18:00 AEST, largely tracking the uptick in wind and battery dispatch. Grid stress scores at 64.5 out of 100, reflecting elevated but not extreme conditions for a winter Monday morning ramp.

Predispatch forecasts point to prices remaining firm through the morning peak before easing. The trajectory from 07:00 AEST holds above $100/MWh, with the 09:30 AEST interval forecast at $163.63/MWh — the sharpest single interval in the predispatch curve — before prices pull back to $132/MWh through 08:00–10:00 AEST and step down to $109/MWh by 11:00 AEST. The afternoon and evening periods forecast a more moderate $80–$93/MWh range. The optimal load-shifting window for large consumers falls between 15:30 and 06:00 AEST tomorrow morning, with the cheapest predispatch interval at 05:30 AEST ($41.77/MWh), saving approximately $115/MWh against the forecast peak.

Two active notices warrant attention for Queensland participants. A non-conformance was declared for TARONG#4 earlier this morning (03:25–03:45 AEST, -33 MW), which has since cleared. More relevant for interconnector-exposed positions, Directlink controls remain unavailable (constraint set I-CTRL_ISSUE_TE active on the N-Q-MNSP1 interconnector), limiting flexibility on the QLD–NSW link until further notice. An automated constraint set CA_BRIS_593C7214 also remains invoked on N-Q-MNSP