Regional Outlook — QLD1: Sunday 12 July 2026
Queensland's spot price sits at $72.50/MWh at 06:25 AEST, with demand at 6,982 MW and climbing as the morning ramp continues. Prices have tracked between -$8.38/MWh and $81.23/MWh over the past 24 hours, with overnight troughs turning negative between 00:15 and 05:30 AEST as demand fell below 4,100 MW. The current price sits at the upper end of today's typical band, consistent with the morning demand build-up.
Generation mix is currently led by black coal at 5,395 MW, followed by wind at 497 MW, battery output at 478 MW, hydro at 146 MW, gas (OCGT) at 132 MW, and negligible solar (0.14 MW) given the early hour. Renewable penetration sits at 16.9%, down from an overnight peak of 44.7% around 00:30 AEST when wind and low demand combined to push renewables higher. Carbon intensity is 0.727 tCO2/MWh, tracking near the top of its 24-hour range (0.487–0.789 tCO2/MWh), reflecting coal's dominant share as solar has yet to contribute.
Predispatch forecasts point to a firming price trajectory through the day: $78.70/MWh by 07:00 AEST, climbing to $93.21/MWh by 08:00 AEST and peaking near $103.83/MWh around 09:00-09:30 AEST as demand peaks. Prices are expected to ease into the afternoon, settling in the $50-57/MWh range from 13:00 AEST onward. Overnight tonight, forecasts show a return to negative territory from 22:30 AEST through to 05:30 AEST tomorrow (as low as -$7.03/MWh), consistent with low demand and continued wind contribution. Solar potential today is forecast at 26.1% average, the strongest of the week, with cloud cover at 0%, supporting midday renewable output before easing over subsequent days.
No active market notices are specific to Queensland today beyond a non-credible contingency event from 04 July (Calliope River 4412 132kV breaker trip), which remains reclassified as credible pending further investigation, with no load shedding instructed. Broader NEM notices include an unavailable Murraylink interconnector control (affecting Victoria-SA transfer capability) and various Tasmanian lightning-related contingency reclassifications — neither directly impacts Queensland