Regional Outlook — QLD1: Tuesday 30 June 2026

Queensland's spot price sits at $101.58/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 6,553 MW. The price has eased notably from the morning peak, where intervals between 17:00 and 18:10 AEST sustained prices in the $163–$175/MWh range on demand pushing above 7,900 MW. The 24-hour rolling picture shows a clear overnight trough — prices dipped as low as $44.89/MWh around 08:05 AEST — before a sustained morning ramp through the $100–$175/MWh band. The current interval marks a moderate pullback from the $102.90/MWh seen at 06:20 AEST, suggesting the post-evening-peak unwinding is underway.

The generation mix at 06:25 AEST has black coal supplying 4,910 MW, wind contributing 1,071 MW, gas OCGT at 475 MW, hydro at 195 MW, and battery dispatch at 184 MW. Solar output is zero, consistent with the overnight period and current 100% cloud cover at 12.5°C. Renewables — wind, hydro, and battery combined — account for 21.2% of generation, in line with the carbon data. Carbon intensity sits at 0.6772 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 21.23%, up from a low of 18.85% recorded around 05:55 AEST but well below the overnight high of 41.25% when wind was stronger and thermal commitment lower. Today's weather outlook — clearing cloud, max 21.5°C, moderate solar potential of 15.7 — points to some midday solar contribution lifting renewable penetration through the morning.

Predispatch forecasts paint a sharp price decline over coming hours. From the current $101.58/MWh, prices are forecast to ease to $93.06/MWh by 07:00 AEST, then fall steeply through the early hours — dropping to around $40/MWh by 09:30 AEST and bottoming near $19.86–$26.23/MWh between 10:00 and 13:30 AEST. The low-price window between 10:00 and 13:00 AEST (UTC+10: 14:00–17:00) represents the optimal flexible load window for today, with average prices around $23–$27/MWh. Prices are then forecast to recover toward $76.60/MWh by 16:00 AEST as demand rebuilds, climbing back to $102–$110/MWh during the 17:00–19:30 AEST business/morning peak band.

Two active market notices carry direct Queensland relevance. First, a non-conformance was declared on TARONG#2 for a brief 10-minute period (28:10–28:20 AEST) at -40 MW, now resolved. Second, and more operationally significant, a short-notice outage of the Greenbank 11 275 kV SVC invoked constraint set Q-GB_VC at 15:00 AEST, affecting transfer limits on both the NSW1-QLD1 and N-Q-MNSP1 (Directlink) interconnectors — this constraint remains active and will be a factor in interconnector flows during today's peak periods