Regional Outlook — QLD1: Sunday 28 June 2026
The spot price in Queensland sits at $69.70/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 6,632 MW. That price is noticeably softer than the morning peak seen earlier today, when prices climbed as high as $108.73/MWh around 17:00 AEST as demand pushed above 7,600 MW during the winter morning ramp. The 24-hour trading range has been wide — from a low of $6.73/MWh at 14:35 AEST through to that $108.73/MWh peak — reflecting the sharp demand swing characteristic of Queensland's winter profile. Current conditions are settling as the evening load builds gradually, with demand up from a mid-afternoon trough near 5,460 MW to the current 6,632 MW.
The generation mix at 06:30 AEST is anchored by black coal at 4,537 MW (68% of output), with wind contributing 1,845 MW (27.8%), gas OCGT at 598 MW (9.0%), battery at 497 MW (7.5%), and hydro at 119 MW (1.8%). Solar is negligible at 0.2 MW given the pre-dawn timing. Total renewable contribution — wind, hydro, and solar combined — sits at 32.4%, consistent with the carbon intensity reading of 0.5768 tCO₂/MWh. That intensity figure represents an improvement from the daytime peak of 0.6252 tCO₂/MWh recorded around 10:00 AEST, when demand was high and wind generation was lower relative to load. Wind at 1,845 MW is carrying the bulk of the non-coal generation this interval. Battery discharge at 497 MW indicates storage is actively supporting the evening ramp.
Predispatch forecasts point to a sharply higher morning tomorrow. Prices are forecast to lift through the pre-dawn period — reaching $90.22/MWh by 16:00 AEST and accelerating to a peak of $132.74/MWh at 18:30 AEST — before easing back through mid-morning. The 08:30–09:30 AEST window looks particularly exposed, with forecasts holding above $103–$132/MWh. Overnight prices are forecast to collapse into the low $40s and high $30s between 09:00–13:00 AEST (23:00–03:00 UTC), presenting the lowest-cost load windows of the day. Flexibility operators and demand-response participants should note the $39–$41/MWh trough window between 13:00–15:00 AEST, which offers savings of approximately $90–$94/MWh versus tomorrow's forecast morning peak.
On market notices, there are no active notices directly affecting Queensland operations today. The most operationally relevant active notice for the broader NEM is a non-conformance declared for SA unit CGBESS01 (43 MW, 05:55–06:00 AEST today), which has no direct Queensland dispatch implication. Queensland traders should also be aware of a GENERAL NOTICE (144326) confirming that from 25 June 2026, AEMO increased the cap on Very Fast Contingency FCAS dispatch in Queensland from 250 MW to 300 MW during periods when islanding is considered credible — relevant for ancillary services participants managing FCAS exposure.