Regional Outlook — QLD1: Friday 26 June 2026

The Queensland spot price sits at $102.88/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 6,056 MW — a marked easing from the sustained peak period that saw prices hold between $165–$188/MWh from 17:30 to 22:00 AEST. The 24-hour price profile has been characterised by a sharp morning ramp from around $62/MWh at 14:00 AEST up to an intraday peak of $223.09/MWh at 21:30 AEST, before a gradual descent through the evening. The current reading sits near the lower boundary of that post-peak plateau, with demand tracking roughly 850 MW below the 07:30 AEST daily peak of 7,810 MW.

The generation mix at 06:30 AEST is dominated by black coal at 4,743 MW (approximately 78% of the 6,661 MW total generation stack), with wind contributing 1,509 MW (25%), battery at 138 MW, gas OCGT at 136 MW, hydro at 136 MW, and solar a negligible 0.2 MW in these overnight hours. Renewable penetration sits at 26.76%, recovering from a daytime low of 14.3% recorded around 23:30 AEST when coal dispatch peaked into the morning price spike. Carbon intensity is 0.6398 tCO2/MWh — elevated relative to the overnight trough of around 0.51 tCO2/MWh seen between midnight and 10:00 AEST, reflecting the shift back toward coal as demand rebuilt through the morning. Today's wind potential is rated modest at 1.0 on a clear, cool morning with temperatures at 11.4°C and minimal cloud cover (22%), which is consistent with the small but steady wind contribution currently observed. Solar generation will build through the day as the forecast maximum of 19.8°C and 24% average cloud cover allow moderate photovoltaic output.

Predispatch forecasts signal a brief period of sub-$70/MWh prices between 10:30 and 13:00 AEST as overnight demand troughs, before a pronounced Saturday morning ramp: prices are forecast to breach $120/MWh by 16:00 AEST, climb to $160.76/MWh by 17:30 AEST, and peak around $212/MWh at 19:30 AEST. The 19:30–20:00 AEST window at a forecast $190–$212/MWh represents the key exposure period for unhedged load today. Prices then moderate back toward $88–$105/MWh through the 02:00–03:00 AEST window. The optimal low-cost load windows for flexible consumers are forecast between 10:30 AEST and 13:30 AEST, with the cheapest 30-minute band around $53–$55/MWh at 12:30–13:00 AEST.

Two active AEMO market notices are relevant to system participants. Notice 144326 confirms that from 25 June 2026 AEMO has raised the dispatch cap for Very Fast Contingency FCAS in the QLD region from 250 MW to 300 MW during periods where islanding is considered credible — a change that will slightly affect FCAS cost allocation for market participants