Regional Outlook — QLD1: Saturday 27 June 2026

The Queensland spot price sits at $72.50/MWh at 06:30 AEST, comfortably below the elevated $90–$130/MWh range seen during this morning's pre-dawn and breakfast peak. Over the past 24 hours, prices spiked as high as $130.50/MWh at 16:05 AEST (06:05 UTC), driven by demand climbing to a session peak of 7,463 MW during the morning ramp. The overnight trough saw prices dip to $32.01/MWh around 10:40 AEST before rebounding with the morning demand surge. The current $72.50/MWh level reflects a demand of 5,792 MW as the grid settles into a quiet Sunday morning pattern.

The generation mix at 06:30 AEST is led by black coal at 4,460.7 MW, followed by wind at 1,460.5 MW, gas OCGT at 642.9 MW, battery at 222.0 MW, and hydro at 111.0 MW. Solar is effectively offline at 0.1 MW — consistent with pre-dawn conditions. Renewables are contributing 26.01% of generation, with wind doing the bulk of that work. Carbon intensity sits at 0.6297 tCO2/MWh, up from the overnight low of 0.5052 tCO2/MWh recorded around 09:00 AEST when renewables reached 42% penetration — a level that dropped as coal and gas ramped up to meet the morning peak. Notably, AEMO lifted the cap on Very Fast Contingency FCAS dispatch in QLD from 250 MW to 300 MW effective 25 June (Market Notice 144326), a structural change that affects frequency response obligations during any potential islanding event.

The predispatch curve points to a sustained price rise through the morning. Prices are forecast to remain in the $71–$86/MWh range through 08:00–09:30 AEST before climbing firmly above $100/MWh from 17:00 AEST (07:00 UTC), peaking at $109/MWh around 19:00–19:30 AEST. The $100+/MWh window is expected to persist from 17:00–20:30 AEST as demand rises with the winter morning ramp. Today being a Sunday, the peak is likely to be less pronounced than on weekdays, but the pattern mirrors yesterday's morning profile. Flexible loads should note the optimal low-price windows flagged between 11:00–12:00 AEST ($53.75–$54.63/MWh) and 13:30–14:30 AEST ($54.63/MWh), offering savings of $49–$55/MWh versus the morning peak.

The active market notices most relevant to QLD today are the Armidale–Dumaresq 330kV line return to service (Notice 144338), which restores interconnection capacity on the QLD–NSW boundary following a scheduled outage completed at 10:40 AEST Saturday — constraint sets N-ARDM_8C, N-DM_SVC, N-TW_SVC, and N-X_8C+DM+TW_SVC have all been revoked. This restoration improves northward transfer headroom and is a constructive factor in today