Regional Outlook — QLD1: Tuesday 23 June 2026

The Queensland spot price sits at **$134.04/MWh** at 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 7,020 MW as the winter morning ramp continues. Reviewing the 24-hour price history, the pattern is pronounced: prices traded near $6–$11/MWh through the overnight trough (01:00–04:00 AEST), briefly went negative to -$1.30/MWh at 14:05 AEST before solar generation briefly pressured the market, then accelerated through the morning peak band — touching $174.73/MWh at 21:20 AEST (07:20 AEST local) and $182.78/MWh at 22:10 AEST (08:10 AEST local) — before settling into the current $130–$135/MWh range. The 24-hour volume-weighted average sits in the mid-$90s/MWh range, meaning the current price is running roughly 40% above that average as the grid holds in the upper portion of the morning demand peak.

The generation mix at the most recent interval (06:00 AEST) is heavily weighted to black coal at **5,287 MW (76.3% of supply)**, with gas OCGT contributing **815 MW (11.8%)**, wind **677 MW (9.8%)**, hydro **119 MW (1.7%)**, battery **50 MW (0.7%)**, and solar effectively zero at **0.1 MW** — consistent with pre-dawn conditions. Renewable penetration sits at **12.18%**, a significant contraction from the overnight high of ~48% when demand was below 4,400 MW and wind carried a larger share of a much smaller load. Carbon intensity is **0.7458 tCO2/MWh**, up sharply from the overnight low of ~0.45 tCO2/MWh, reflecting the coal-dominant dispatch profile required to meet the 7,000+ MW winter morning load. The grid stress score of 67.3/100 is consistent with this high-demand, thermally-dispatched operating state. Weather conditions show 10.1°C with near-zero cloud cover, confirming clear-sky conditions today; solar potential is rated at 23.3 for the daily outlook, so some midday solar relief is likely as demand softens through the afternoon.

Predispatch forecasts signal an escalation over the next few hours before a material decline. Prices are forecast at **$138.77/MWh at 07:00 AEST**, rising sharply to a **$190.53/MWh peak at 07:30 AEST**, then retreating to $105.73/MWh by 08:00 AEST and $70/MWh by 08:30 AEST as demand rolls off the morning peak. The outlook for this afternoon is notably elevated: forecasts show **$250/MWh at 09:00 AEST** (19:00 AEST local), **$223.83/MWh at 09:30 AEST**, and **$178.41/MWh at 11:00 AEST** — indicating predispatch is pricing in a second stress event through the evening peak window. Prices are then expected to ease back to $84–$90/MWh range through the 16:00–18:00 AEST (02:00