Commodity Demand — QLD1: Friday 7 August 2026

Queensland spot price sits at $97.80/MWh at 06:30 AEST (settlement 20:30 UTC 7 Aug), with demand at 6,257 MW and easing from the morning peak. Demand climbed sharply from an overnight trough near 3,950 MW around 02:30 AEST to a peak of 7,467 MW at 07:55 AEST, tracking the cold start to the day — current temperature is 10.1°C with heating demand elevated at 7.9. Price responded in lockstep: overnight demand below 4,500 MW pushed RRP negative (down to -$3.73/MWh in the 03:00-04:00 AEST window), while the morning ramp above 7,000 MW drove prices to an intraday high of $140.34/MWh at 07:45 AEST. That's roughly a 35x price swing across a 3,500 MW demand range, underscoring how tightly QLD pricing tracks load at this time of year.

Demand has since eased through the day, sitting at 6,257 MW into the current interval, down from the mid-morning plateau around 7,100-7,400 MW. Price has followed proportionally, easing from the $109-118/MWh band through mid-morning to under $100/MWh now. Forecast RRP data points to a second demand-driven price ramp this evening: the 5-minute forecast track shows prices holding near $105-118/MWh into the 21:00-22:00 AEST window before collapsing to near-zero and negative territory overnight (-$9/MWh forecast around 04:00 AEST tomorrow), mirroring last night's pattern almost exactly.

Generation mix at the current interval shows black coal carrying 5,797 MW of the 7,083 MW total dispatch, with wind contributing 473 MW and batteries discharging 523 MW to help meet the evening demand step-up. Solar has dropped to near zero (0.18 MW) as the sun sets, removing a key supply buffer just as demand normally holds up into the evening peak — this is consistent with the pattern of rising carbon intensity (0.73 tCO2/MWh currently, up from lows near 0.47 tCO2/MWh overnight) as renewable penetration falls to 16.4%. No demand-side constraints are flagged in active market notices; the QLD1 items relate to generator non-conformance (MPP_1, STAN-1) and a network contingency reclassification at Nebo substation, none of which point to material demand response or load-shedding risk today. Traders should watch the 18:00-21:00 AEST window for a repeat of yesterday's evening price firming above $100/MWh as demand rebuilds toward 6,000+ MW before the overnight collapse resumes.