Commodity Demand — QLD1: Monday 3 August 2026
Queensland demand sits at 7,111 MW as of 06:30 AEST, up sharply from the overnight trough of 4,134 MW around 10:50 AEST yesterday evening. Spot price is $97.83/MWh, tracking a steep evening ramp that saw prices climb from $67.23/MWh at 6:15 AEST to a peak of $115.05/MWh at 7:20 AEST as demand crossed 7,300 MW. The price-demand relationship is tight through this period: every ~200 MW step above 7,000 MW has coincided with $10-20/MWh price jumps, indicating the region is working through its mid-merit and peaking capacity stack.
The forecast trajectory points to a further squeeze this morning. AEMO's latest projections show forecast RRP climbing from $102.80/MWh at 07:00 to $130.69/MWh by 07:30 AEST, before easing to the $50-85/MWh band through mid-morning as demand likely plateaus and rooftop solar contributes. This morning peak is consistent with the historical evening pattern already visible in the data — Queensland's demand curve shows a pronounced ramp between 06:00 and 08:00, and today's build from 4,918 MW to over 7,700 MW in that window is driving the price volatility traders should expect through the first two hours of trade.
Generation mix at the current interval shows black coal supplying 5,880 MW (the dominant source), with battery storage contributing 651 MW, wind 377 MW, hydro 112 MW, and gas OCGT 110 MW — solar is negligible at this hour given it's before sunrise. Grid carbon intensity sits at 0.736 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 16%, both reflecting the low-wind, pre-dawn conditions captured in today's weather outlook (wind potential just 0.4, solar potential 0 at present, building to an average 26% by midday).
No QLD-specific demand-side notices are active — the recent AEMO notices concern NSW1 transmission contingencies (Bayswater-Mt Piper lines, reclassified then cancelled due to lightning) and prior SA1/TAS1 events, none of which materially affect Queensland's supply-demand balance today. With today's forecast max temperature reaching 20.9°C and low cooling/heating demand, the primary price driver through the trading day remains the morning commercial/industrial ramp rather than weather-driven load, and the negative forecast prices overnight (down to -$6.50/MWh between 02:00-06:00 tomorrow) confirm the current tightness is a temporary peak-period phenomenon rather than a sustained supply shortfall.