Commodity Demand — QLD1: Thursday 17 September 2026
Queensland spot price sits at $94.54/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with demand at 6,246 MW and climbing following the overnight trough. The region has just come through a sharp evening peak — prices spiked to $175.11/MWh at 20:15 as demand pushed through 6,165 MW, before easing back as the post-dinner load tapers. This evening peak followed a textbook demand-price relationship: as demand rose from 5,500 MW at 18:00 to over 6,200 MW by 20:30, prices tracked upward in near-lockstep, confirming QLD's price curve is currently demand-elastic in this band rather than being capped by must-run baseload.
The overnight demand trough is instructive for today's setup. QLD demand fell to a low near 3,270 MW around 01:00-01:30 AEST, driving prices deeply negative (-$6 to -$9/MWh) for an extended six-hour window as rooftop solar output was absent and minimum-load conditions pushed excess baseload into the market. This negative pricing window aligns with the load-shifting windows flagged in the data, with the 01:30-02:30 slot averaging -$9.25/MWh — the cheapest window of the day. From that trough, demand rebounded sharply through the morning ramp, hitting 7,000 MW by 07:20 and prices lifting above $100/MWh as solar generation was still building and the coal/gas fleet met the bulk of the ramp.
Today's forecast trajectory points to a firm but not extreme demand profile. AEMO's own forward pricing has the 07:00 period at $64.83/MWh, climbing through $85-93/MWh across mid-morning as demand consolidates near 7,000-7,400 MW (yesterday's comparable period peaked at 7,486 MW just after 08:00). The forecast curve shows a secondary price firming into early afternoon, with a notable spike to $114.69/MWh forecast for 12:30 AEST — likely reflecting a demand/solar mismatch as rooftop PV output plateaus while underlying demand holds. Prices are then expected to ease progressively through the afternoon to around $72.76/MWh by 18:00 as demand moderates ahead of the evening peak build.
Generation mix at the last interval shows black coal supplying 5,362 MW of QLD's load (the dominant component), with wind contributing 1,015 MW, battery output at 303 MW, hydro at 253 MW, solar at 351 MW, and gas OCGT filling 103 MW at the margin. Renewable penetration sits at 26.0% with carbon intensity at 0.648 tCO2/MWh — both metrics reflecting the current pre-dawn/early morning window where solar has not yet ramped and wind output, while solid, isn't dominant. No QLD-specific demand-side notices are active; the AEMO market interventions and minimum system load warnings in the notice log relate to SA voltage management, not QLD demand constraints, so today's price outlook is being driven purely by underlying demand-supply dynamics rather than any operational intervention risk in this region.