Commodity Demand — QLD1: Wednesday 5 August 2026
Queensland spot price sits at $189.72/MWh as at 06:30 AEST, with demand at 7,003 MW and climbing through the evening peak. The current interval caps a volatile ramp: prices swung from $158.59/MWh to $206.33/MWh in the prior two 5-minute intervals as demand pushed from 6,929 MW to 7,003 MW, confirming tight price sensitivity to load at these levels — each ~50-70 MW step is moving price by $30-50/MWh in the 6,500-7,500 MW band.
The demand trajectory over the past 24 hours shows the full duck-curve pattern typical of winter: overnight troughs near 3,800-4,000 MW drove prices negative (down to -$7.16/MWh) between 02:00-04:30 AEST, before the morning ramp lifted demand to a 7,500-7,700 MW peak around 08:00-09:00 AEST, pushing prices into the $140-212/MWh range with a spike to $212.10/MWh at 07:45. Demand then eased through midday to a 5,700-6,000 MW trough in the 15:00-18:00 window, holding prices in the $87-120/MWh band, before the current evening ramp is now rebuilding load past 7,000 MW.
AEMO's forward price curve points to a sharp overnight price collapse as demand falls away: forecasts show $269-309/MWh through 21:00-22:00 AEST tonight as the evening peak completes, then a fast drop to sub-$100/MWh by 22:30 and near-zero or negative pricing from 00:00-05:00 AEST as demand troughs again. The curve then re-inflects into tomorrow's morning peak, with forecast prices climbing back to $140-190/MWh by 08:00-09:30 AEST and a pronounced spike to $237-251/MWh forecast for 13:00-13:30 AEST tomorrow — signalling a second demand-driven peak risk around midday.
No demand-side notices are active for Queensland today; the only regional constraint (CA_SYDS_59839EB2, invoked from 08:15 hrs 4 August) governs the NSW1-QLD1 interconnector transfer limit rather than QLD load directly, though it remains relevant for any inter-regional price support during today's peak windows. Grid stress scoring for Queensland currently reads 75.8/100, consistent with the tight demand-price coupling observed through this evening's ramp.