Commodity Demand — QLD1: Sunday 2 August 2026

Queensland demand sits at 6,885 MW as of 06:30 AEST, with spot price at $65.96/MWh — up sharply from the sub-$1/MWh troughs recorded through the overnight low-demand period (00:00-05:00 AEST), when demand bottomed near 3,970 MW. This morning's ramp is textbook: demand climbed roughly 3,000 MW between 04:00 and 08:30 AEST as the morning heating load kicked in (current temperature 10.1°C, heating demand index 7.9), pushing price from negative territory (-$8.06/MWh at 04:35) to a peak of $79.22/MWh at 05:45 as demand crossed 5,700 MW. Price sensitivity is stark through this window — each ~500 MW of demand growth is triggering $20-40/MWh price jumps, indicating the region is moving up a steep section of the supply stack as gas peakers and battery discharge get progressively more expensive to dispatch.

Demand has continued climbing through the morning shoulder, hitting an intraday high near 7,500 MW around 08:00-08:30 AEST, with price holding in the $69-78/MWh band. Since then demand has eased back to current levels near 6,880-6,920 MW through the 09:00-11:00 AEST window, with price settling around $60-65/MWh — confirming the tight demand-price coupling. The afternoon trading data through 12:00-18:00 AEST shows demand tapering to a midday low near 5,350-5,450 MW (16:00-16:30 AEST), with price compressing into the $38-54/MWh range as rooftop and grid solar contribution offsets grid demand, before climbing again into the evening.

AEMO's forecast points to a significant afternoon price escalation tomorrow's trading period, with forecast RRP climbing from $67/MWh at 07:00 to a peak of $109.76/MWh between 09:30-10:00 AEST tomorrow, holding above $100/MWh through to midday before easing to $67-84/MWh into the afternoon and evening. This trajectory reflects tightening reserve margins as demand is expected to build through the morning without matching renewable output — current generation mix shows black coal supplying 5,249 MW (76% of dispatch) with wind at 785 MW and battery discharge at 809 MW, while renewable penetration sits at just 23.2% and carbon intensity at 0.671 tCO2/MWh. No QLD-specific demand-side notices are active; the operative market interventions and reserve constraints remain confined to SA1 and TAS1 regions, so today's price trajectory in Queensland is being driven purely by the underlying demand ramp against a coal-and-gas-dominated supply stack rather than any network or reserve constraint.