Commodity Demand — QLD1: Saturday 1 August 2026

Queensland spot price sits at $55.50/MWh at 06:30 AEST (settlement 20:30 UTC), with demand at 5,759 MW and climbing. This follows a textbook overnight trough: demand bottomed near 4,380 MW around 04:35 AEST alongside negative pricing (down to -$5/MWh) as low heating load met continued wind output, before the morning ramp pushed demand back through 6,000 MW by 06:00 AEST.

The overnight data shows QLD's price-demand sensitivity is sharp at the margins. Between 4,700-6,300 MW, prices tracked a fairly linear band of $40-90/MWh, but once demand pushed past 6,800 MW around 17:20 AEST yesterday, prices spiked to $84-89/MWh as black coal (currently 5,053 MW) and gas peakers (124 MW OCGT) were called on to cover the gap beyond wind (1,528 MW) and hydro (54 MW). Solar contribution is negligible at this hour (0.26 MW) given it's before sunrise, consistent with today's weak solar potential outlook (18.2% average).

AEMO's forecast trajectory points to a firming afternoon peak: forecast prices climb from $53.75/MWh at 07:00 AEST to $91.76-91.77/MWh through the 08:00-11:00 AEST window, coinciding with the morning demand ramp exceeding 7,000 MW (yesterday's comparable period hit 7,267 MW at similar times). This suggests today's demand trajectory will mirror yesterday's pattern — a similar overnight low near 4,4000 MW, a sharp 08:00-11:00 AEST ramp into the high-$80s/$90s, then easing through midday as demand recedes below 6,500 MW. No load-shedding or reserve notices are active for QLD; the only regional market interventions are voltage-related directions in SA, unrelated to Queensland demand-side conditions. Traders should watch the 08:00-11:00 AEST window most closely, where the forecast $91.76/MWh plateau represents the day's tightest supply-demand balance before wind and demand taper into the afternoon.