Commodity Demand — QLD1: Tuesday 4 August 2026
Queensland demand sits at 7,135 MW as of 06:30 AEST, with the spot price at $116.11/MWh — tracking the steep morning ramp that's typical of winter heating load. Demand has climbed from an overnight trough of roughly 3,900 MW (around 12:00-13:00 AEST) to current levels in under six hours, and price has responded in lockstep: the last 30 minutes alone saw demand rise from 6,926 MW to 7,135 MW as price jumped from $103.71/MWh to $116.11/MWh. This region shows high price sensitivity above the 7,000 MW mark — intervals sitting between 7,000-7,850 MW yesterday afternoon pushed prices consistently into the $119-142/MWh band, with a peak of $141.90/MWh at 7,834 MW.
The forecast trajectory points to a firmer day ahead. AEMO's forward curve has prices holding near $120/MWh through the 07:30-08:00 AEST window, then stepping up sharply to $139-174/MWh between 08:30 and 11:30 AEST as morning demand builds, with an outlier spike to $260/MWh forecast for the 12:30 window — likely reflecting a tight dispatch interval rather than sustained tightness given afternoon forecasts ease back to the $85-105/MWh range through the rest of the day. Current cold conditions (9.7°C, minimal solar potential at 0%) are consistent with sustained heating load supporting elevated morning demand; today's daily outlook shows solar potential improving to 26.4% average, which should help moderate midday price pressure once rooftop and grid-scale solar ramp up.
Generation mix at the current interval shows black coal supplying 6,128 MW of the 7,789 MW total generation, with battery storage contributing 981 MW — a meaningful discharge contribution during this morning ramp. Wind sits at 408 MW and hydro at 170 MW. No QLD-specific demand-side notices are active; the only regional item is an ongoing NSW1-QLD1 interconnector constraint (CA_SYDS_59839EB2) tied to NSW power system security, which may limit import/export flexibility if QLD needs to lean on interconnector support during the forecast 08:30-11:30 AEST price step-up.