Commodity Demand — QLD1: Friday 31 July 2026
Queensland spot price sits at $78.54/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with demand at 6,066 MW — down sharply from last night's evening peak of 7,538 MW recorded at 07:55 UTC (17:55 AEST) on 30 July, when prices spiked as high as $294.39/MWh. That peak-to-trough swing illustrates QLD1's steep demand-price curve: every 1,000 MW of incremental demand above 6,500 MW has been adding roughly $40-80/MWh to spot price over the past 24 hours, as gas peaking and battery dispatch are called on to cover the gap.
The overnight trough bottomed out below 4,400 MW between 10:00-11:00 AEST, with prices collapsing to near-zero and briefly negative (as low as $2.79/MWh), consistent with minimum demand periods when black coal baseload (currently 5,380 MW) exceeds system requirements. AEMO's forecast trajectory for the rest of today shows demand climbing through the morning shoulder, with forecast prices rising from $47.98/MWh at 16:00 AEST to a projected peak of $101.23/MWh around 19:00 AEST — the steepest projected ramp of the day. A secondary afternoon peak near $93-99/MWh is forecast between 17:30-19:00 AEST before easing back to the $40s by early evening.
Today's demand outlook is shaped by mild winter conditions — current temperature is 10.3°C with heating demand at 7.7 (on the model's scale) and negligible solar potential (0) at this hour, meaning rooftop PV won't materially offset morning demand ramp. Forecast highs of 19.8°C with 20.1% average solar potential should support midday demand relief, similar to today's pattern where prices eased to the $50-80/MWh band through the 09:00-15:00 window as solar and wind (currently 1,532 MW) contributed alongside coal. Overnight low-price windows are flagged for 03:00-06:00 AEST tomorrow, with forecast prices dipping to -$6.71/MWh — a clear low-demand, low-carbon-intensity window for flexible load. No non-conformance or reserve notices are currently active for QLD1, indicating no immediate demand-side constraint risk to today's price outlook.