Commodity Demand — QLD1: Thursday 6 August 2026

Queensland spot price sits at $130.51/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with demand at 6,968 MW and climbing through the morning ramp. The overnight trough saw demand fall to 4,580 MW around 11:05 AEST last night, dragging prices down to a low of $30.36/MWh, before the evening peak on Wednesday pushed demand to 7,291 MW and prices as high as $294.40/MWh. That roughly 2,700 MW swing between trough and peak drove a near-tenfold price range, underlining just how tightly QLD pricing tracks demand at the margin once black coal and gas peaking plant are needed to fill the gap.

Today's demand trajectory points to a continued build through the morning, consistent with the pattern already visible in the price history — demand rose from 4,580 MW near 11:05 AEST to over 7,700 MW by 08:05 AEST, correlating with prices climbing from the $50-70/MWh band overnight to a local peak near $156.90/MWh at 07:50 AEST. AEMO's 30-minute forecast curve shows prices easing back into the $85-125/MWh range through midday and early afternoon as demand moderates, before a forecast spike to $181.73/MWh around 21:00 AEST tonight (11:00 UTC) coinciding with the evening peak — the sharpest forecast price movement of the day. Cool minimum temperatures (11°C) and negligible solar potential this morning are keeping heating demand elevated at 7.5 (heating demand index), while afternoon solar potential lifts to 30% under clear skies, which should support renewable output and cap midday price growth.

Generation mix at the current interval shows black coal supplying 6,140 MW of the 7,814 MW total, with gas OCGT (660 MW) and batteries (494 MW) providing peaking support — batteries are actively discharging into the morning ramp, a pattern likely to repeat into this evening's forecast peak. Renewable penetration has dropped to 12.98% as solar output falls to near zero overnight into early morning, pushing carbon intensity up to 0.7464 tCO2/MWh, the highest reading in the past 24 hours. On the network side, AEMO reclassified a contingency event at Nebo (SVC and 275/132kV transformer) as credible from 20:31 AEST yesterday, effective until further notice — this constraint bears watching for any impact on dispatch flexibility or localised price separation during today's demand peaks, particularly if it interacts with the evening ramp when demand is forecast to approach 7,500+ MW again.