Commodity Demand — TAS1: Wednesday 5 August 2026
Tasmania spot price sits at $158.95/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with demand climbing through 1,300 MW as the morning ramp builds. Demand has risen sharply from the overnight trough of ~985 MW (03:00-04:00 AEST) to current levels, and price has tracked this closely — the overnight period saw prices compressed in the $90-130/MWh band, but as demand pushed past 1,100 MW after 06:00 AEST, prices spiked repeatedly above $200/MWh, including a peak of $247.03/MWh at 05:50 AEST on 1,089 MW. This confirms Tasmania's price curve is highly demand-sensitive once load exceeds roughly 1,050-1,100 MW, a threshold where hydro dispatch and gas peaking (currently 207.57 MW from OCGT) both become active.
The forecast trajectory points to a classic morning peak now in progress, with AEMO's projections showing forecast RRP climbing to $250.93/MWh by 22:00 UTC (08:00 AEST) before easing back toward $99/MWh by 08:30 AEST as demand plateaus. A second, sharper peak is forecast for the evening: prices are projected to climb from $116/MWh at 14:00 UTC through to $249/MWh by 13:00-13:30 UTC (23:00-23:30 AEST tomorrow's cycle), suggesting today's evening peak (17:00-19:00 AEST) will again test the 1,300+ MW demand band that historically pushes RRP past $200/MWh. Traders should note the 16:35-16:50 AEST window saw a brief price collapse to $13-14/MWh coinciding with a 20 MW demand dip — a reminder that Tasmania's tight hydro-gas balance can swing both directions quickly.
Overnight, demand is forecast to fall to a low near $44/MWh around 01:00 AEST tomorrow as load drops below 1,000 MW, reinforcing the load-shifting opportunities flagged in today's low-price windows (01:00-04:30 AEST, averaging $50-61/MWh). No demand-side constraints or load-shedding directions are active in TAS1 today; the only region-specific notices relate to resolved lightning-related contingency reclassifications on the Norwood-Scottsdale, Palmerston-Hadspen, Sheffield-George Town and Burnie-Port Latta-Smithton lines, all cancelled by 3 August with no ongoing operational impact on today's dispatch.