Commodity Demand — VIC1: Friday 31 July 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $102.36/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with demand at 6,231 MW — up from an overnight low near 5,700 MW but still well below yesterday's evening peak of 8,529 MW, which pushed prices as high as $529.63/MWh. That overnight peak (06:30-07:30 UTC / 16:30-17:30 AEST equivalent trading blocks) illustrates VIC1's steep price-demand curve: a roughly 30% demand increase from 6,400 MW to 8,300 MW drove prices up more than 5x, confirming the region is trading near the steep part of the supply curve during evening ramps.
The forecast trajectory into today shows demand-driven price easing through the morning, with forecast RRP dropping from $99.95/MWh at 07:00 to negative territory (-$1.15/MWh) around 12:30-13:00 AEST as rooftop solar and moderate demand combine to soften the curve. Prices are expected to bottom out near $0-11/MWh across the 11:30-18:00 AEST window, consistent with typical winter midday troughs when heating load is modest and minimum demand periods dominate. The load-window data confirms this, flagging five low-price blocks between 11:30 and 16:00 AEST with savings up to $158/MWh versus peak, all carrying low risk ratings.
Current weather conditions reinforce the demand outlook: temperature sits at 3.2°C with heating demand at 14.8 (moderate) and negligible solar output (98% cloud cover, 0% solar potential) during the pre-dawn window. Today's outlook (2.9-14.7°C, 12% average cloud) suggests solar generation will strengthen materially through midday, supporting the forecast price collapse. Grid stress scores sit at 74.6, reflecting the current tight supply-demand balance, while an active constraint on the South Morang-Sydenham 500kV line (invoked 11:00 AEST) may add localised price volatility risk during today's demand ramps, alongside a VIC-SA power system security constraint set that remains in force.