Commodity Demand — TAS1: Friday 31 July 2026
Tasmania spot price sits at $92.07/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with demand at 1,144 MW and climbing off the overnight trough. The region has just come through a volatile evening peak, where prices spiked as high as $478.08/MWh at 07:30 AEST last night as demand pushed above 1,470 MW — a clear illustration of Tasmania's steep price-demand curve above the 1,400 MW mark, where hydro dispatch and the Basslink/interconnector limits leave less headroom before gas peakers set the marginal price.
Today's trajectory points to a mild overnight low and a mid-morning demand ramp. AEMO's forecast curve shows prices easing toward single digits and even briefly negative between 11:30 AEST and 16:00 AEST (as low as -$1.21/MWh around 12:30 AEST), consistent with the load windows flagged for that period offering $130-142/MWh savings versus peak. This reflects a demand trough alongside strong hydro output (1,248 MW hydro, 92% renewable generation mix currently) rather than any supply constraint. Demand is expected to build again into the evening, with forecast prices climbing back to $85-94/MWh range between 17:00-19:00 AEST as the evening peak approaches, though nowhere near last night's $478.08/MWh spike given cooler daytime temperatures (max 13.4°C forecast) keeping heating load moderate rather than extreme.
Price sensitivity to demand in Tasmania is pronounced: the overnight data shows every ~50 MW step above 1,300 MW correlating with $20-50/MWh price jumps, particularly once gas OCGT (currently 124 MW) is needed to cover the margin above hydro and wind (134 MW). Traders should watch the 08:00-09:00 AEST window, where demand is still building past 1,300 MW with prices holding in the $150-175/MWh band from the prior settlement period — a signal that morning ramp pricing remains firm before the midday trough. No demand-side notices (load shedding, LOR conditions, or non-conformance events) are currently active for TAS1, though the Directlink NSW interconnector outage completion and ongoing VIC-SA constraint management notices warrant monitoring for any flow-on interconnector effects on Tasmanian export capacity.