NEM Overview: Tuesday 28 July 2026
Spot prices show a wide overnight spread across the NEM this morning: VIC1 sits at -$1.10/MWh, in negative territory, while SA1 leads at $92.44/MWh and WA1 (a separate market) prints $99.90/MWh. NSW1 is at $71.40/MWh, QLD1 at $76.95/MWh, and TAS1 at $27.97/MWh. The VIC-to-SA price gap of roughly $93/MWh reflects binding interconnector constraints — both V-SA and V-S-MNSP1 are currently binding, with AEMO running automated constraint sets to manage power system security in VIC1, active since 0130 hrs today. VIC1-NSW1 flow is also binding at 722.8 MW, well above its nominal export limit, indicating heavy northward transfer supporting NSW1 demand of 9,112 MW.
Renewable penetration across the NEM sits at 48.3% on the latest snapshot, with strong regional variation. TAS1 is running at 92.25% renewable (1,180 MW hydro, 298 MW wind) with carbon intensity of just 0.05 tCO2/MWh. SA1 follows at 61.54% renewable, driven by 808 MW wind against 505 MW combined gas generation. VIC1 sits at 50.39% renewable, with wind at 3,467 MW comfortably outpacing brown coal's 3,472 MW. NSW1 renewable share is lower at 31.74%, with black coal (5,845 MW) dominant alongside 1,920 MW wind. QLD1 has the lowest renewable share at 13.46%, with black coal at 5,511 MW against just 279 MW wind and no solar output overnight — consistent with pre-dawn conditions across all regions given zero solar generation NEM-wide at this settlement time.
Grid stress reads 49.4, elevated by the SA1 reserve conditions. AEMO has flagged forecast LOR1 in SA1 for two windows today — 0700-1200 hrs and 1700-2230 hrs — with minimum capacity reserve tracking below requirement in both cases (357 MW against 386 MW required in the morning block). This follows a cancelled LOR1 overnight and a string of LOR2 notices through the week, pointing to persistent tight reserve margins in SA1 as wind output fluctuates. Traders should watch SA1 pricing through the LOR1 windows, and monitor the VIC1 constraint automation for any further inter-regional transfer limit changes, as these remain the key drivers of today's price divergence.