Commodity Demand — VIC1: Tuesday 28 July 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at -$1.10/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with demand at 6,283 MW and climbing as the morning ramp gets underway — up from an overnight trough of 4,703 MW recorded around 14:40 AEST yesterday. Overnight demand held in the 4,700-5,700 MW band for roughly 12 hours, keeping prices pinned between -$1 and -$5/MWh as wind generation (3,467 MW) and brown coal (3,472 MW) comfortably covered load with zero solar output overnight. That soft demand backdrop, combined with high wind output, explains the persistent negative pricing through the early hours.
Price sensitivity to demand is pronounced once load pushes past 7,000 MW. Yesterday's evening peak saw demand reach 7,621 MW at 21:55 AEST, coinciding with prices spiking to $134.82/MWh shortly before, and volatile swings between -$210/MWh and +$236/MWh occurred through the 17:00-18:00 AEST window as demand oscillated between 6,999-7,610 MW. These swings indicate thin marginal supply margins once brown coal and wind output are fully committed and gas peaking capacity needs to respond to fast ramps.
Today's demand trajectory points to a repeat pattern: AEMO's forecast has prices lifting from single digits at 07:00 AEST to $97.86/MWh by 08:00 AEST and peaking near $108/MWh around 08:30-09:00 AEST as morning demand ramps toward the 7,500-7,700 MW range seen yesterday at the same time. A secondary elevated-price window is forecast from 12:30-13:00 AEST ($99.54/MWh) before prices ease into the mid-$70s/MWh through the afternoon and evening as demand plateaus. Traders should note the active VIC power system security constraint (CA_SYDS_597B5710, invoked 01:30 AEST) limiting V-SA and V-S-MNSP1 interconnector flows, which reduces Victoria's ability to export surplus wind generation or import support during peak demand periods, potentially amplifying price volatility at both ends of the range.
Carbon intensity is currently 0.6043 tCO2/MWh with renewables at 50.4% of the mix. As demand rises through the morning peak and wind typically eases relative to overnight levels, expect carbon intensity to track toward the 0.68-0.70 tCO2/MWh range seen yesterday between 08:00-12:00 AEST, when renewable penetration dropped to 42-44%.