Regional Outlook — TAS1: Monday 27 July 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at -$1.16/MWh at 06:30 AEST, continuing a stretch of negative and near-zero pricing that's dominated the region since midday yesterday. Prices swung from a peak of $245.99/MWh during yesterday evening's demand ramp (20:55 AEST) down through single digits overnight, then turned persistently negative from midday through the evening peak, printing as low as -$10.14/MWh. Demand currently reads 1,108 MW, off the overnight low of 878 MW but well below yesterday evening's 1,350 MW peak. Predispatch has the region staying in negative-to-flat territory through today, with forecasts ranging from -$6.87/MWh (05:30 AEST) to a brief $7.53/MWh spike around 08:30 AEST, before settling back near zero into the afternoon.
Generation mix is running wind-led this morning: wind at 511 MW, hydro at 443 MW, and gas OCGT contributing 124 MW, for total output around 1,079 MW. Renewable penetration sits at 88.5%, up sharply from the mid-80s recorded through yesterday's afternoon and evening peak, when gas ran harder to cover demand. Carbon intensity has correspondingly fallen to 0.0749 tCO2/MWh, down from a daily high of 0.1119 tCO2/MWh at 15:30 AEST yesterday — tracking the inverse relationship between gas dispatch and hydro/wind availability that's typical for TAS1.
Wind potential is forecast at just 5.5% today with cloud cover at 55%, easing from current 17.2 km/h wind speeds, so hydro will likely pick up more of the generation task through the day. Grid conditions notes: the AEMO negative settlement residue constraint on the TAS-VIC interconnector (NRM_TAS1_VIC1) was invoked twice yesterday afternoon and evening due to accumulated negative residues from sustained negative pricing, then cancelled at 19:30 AEST — a direct consequence of the extended low-price period. No active TAS1 network or contingency notices remain outstanding; the most recent transmission-related items (Farrell-Reece and Gordon-Chapel St line reclassifications) were both lightning-related and have since reverted to non-credible status. Load-shifting windows today are favourable, with five low-risk intervals identified between 02:00