Commodity Demand — TAS1: Monday 27 July 2026
Tasmania spot price sits at -$1.16/MWh as at 06:30 AEST, with demand at 1,108 MW — tracking within the region's typical overnight trough after last night's evening peak faded. The current interval caps off a volatile 24 hours: demand swung from a low near 875 MW in mid-afternoon (14:00-16:00 AEST) up to a peak of 1,351 MW around 08:15 AEST yesterday, with prices moving from -$10/MWh in the trough to $246/MWh at the shoulder peak near 07:00 AEST. This confirms Tasmania's price-demand relationship remains steep at the margins: once demand pushes past ~1,250 MW, gas OCGT generation sets the marginal price and RRP jumps sharply, whereas below ~950 MW the region regularly prints negative prices as hydro and wind output exceeds local load.
The current generation mix — 511 MW wind, 443 MW hydro, and 124 MW gas OCGT — is delivering 88.5% renewable penetration and a carbon intensity of 0.075 tCO2/MWh, both improving from the mid-afternoon low of 82.8% renewables. This wind strength is keeping prices suppressed despite demand rebuilding through the evening ramp. AEMO's forecast curve points to negative-to-flat pricing persisting through the day: -$1.4 to -$7/MWh across most 30-minute intervals out to 18:00 AEST tomorrow, with only brief positive spikes near 09:00 AEST ($6.8/MWh) and 08:30 AEST ($5/MWh) coinciding with modest demand upticks. Coolish conditions (10.9°C, heating demand at 7.1) support steady residential load without stressing the system.
For today's outlook, the load-shifting windows identified by our models — 03:00-07:00 AEST tomorrow morning, averaging -$4 to -$6/MWh — reinforce that flexible load should target early morning hours when wind generation typically peaks and demand troughs coincide. Traders should note the active NRM_TAS1_VIC1 negative residue constraint (started 18:35 AEST yesterday, later cancelled at 19:30) reflecting genuine congestion risk on the Basslink interconnector when Tasmania is exporting into a low-priced Victorian market. With no credible contingency events currently active on the Tasmanian network and