Regional Outlook — TAS1: Saturday 25 July 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $48.66/MWh as of 20:30 AEST, with demand at 1030 MW. The region has traded in a wide band over the past 24 hours — troughing to negative territory (-$5.18/MWh) overnight between 03:00 and 05:30 as hydro and wind output outpaced demand, then spiking to a peak of $131.54/MWh forecast for mid-morning as the market anticipates tighter conditions. The current price is broadly in line with yesterday's late-evening levels of $40-60/MWh, following a volatile midday session that saw multiple sharp swings between $5/MWh and $78/MWh.
Generation mix is hydro-dominated: hydro is contributing 1067.71 MW, wind is adding 330.03 MW, and gas OCGT is providing 125.28 MW, for total generation of roughly 1523 MW against 1030 MW demand — Tasmania remains a net exporter on Basslink today. Renewable penetration sits at 91.77%, consistent with the region's typical hydro-wind baseload profile, and carbon intensity reads 0.0535 tCO2/MWh, near the middle of today's 0.045-0.091 tCO2/MWh range. The brief intensity spike to 0.09 tCO2/MWh around 05:00-05:30 AEST coincided with reduced renewable output overnight before hydro and wind ramped back up.
Predispatch forecasts point to a sharp price escalation through the morning: from $37.71/MWh at 22:00 today, prices are forecast to climb steadily to $105.20/MWh by 07:30, peaking near $131.54/MWh at 10:00 AEST before easing back to the $55-70/MWh band through the afternoon and settling around $41/MWh by 18:00. This trajectory reflects tightening reserve margins as morning demand builds against a backdrop of low solar potential (1.2%) and modest wind potential (3.1%) forecast for today under 80% cloud cover. Traders should note the overnight window from 01:00-06:00 AEST offers the lowest-cost, lowest-carbon load-shifting opportunity, with prices averaging $24-29/MWh.
On notices, TAS1-specific market activity has been limited to a series of reclassified and since-cancelled non-credible contingency events on the Farrell-Reece and Gordon-Chapel St 220 kV lines