Regional Outlook — VIC1: Friday 24 July 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $6.81/MWh at 06:30 AEST, sitting well below the past 24 hours' average of roughly $30-35/MWh and a far cry from Thursday evening's peak of $110.76/MWh. Overnight prices spent extended periods at or near zero — including a run of negative pricing between 19:35 and 20:05 AEST — reflecting strong wind output against low overnight demand of around 5,196 MW, less than half of Thursday's evening peak above 8,200 MW.
The generation mix is currently led by brown coal at 3,410 MW, with wind contributing 2,562 MW, hydro at 11 MW, and negligible battery and solar output given the pre-dawn hour and 100% cloud cover. This puts renewable penetration at 43.01%, a temporary retreat from the overnight high of 54.85% recorded around 03:30 AEST when wind generation was stronger relative to demand. Carbon intensity currently reads 0.6953 tCO2/MWh, up from the day's low of 0.5508 tCO2/MWh in the early hours, tracking the reduced renewable share as wind eases and demand builds into the morning ramp.
Predispatch forecasts show prices holding in the $5-11/MWh band through until 07:00 AEST, before a sharp lift to $56.05/MWh at the 07:00 interval and a climb toward $74-78/MWh across the late morning and into early afternoon, peaking near $78.12/MWh around 08:30 AEST and again at $77.18/MWh near midday. Prices are then forecast to ease back to the $10.50/MWh band from 14:30 AEST onward. Today's weather outlook shows limited solar potential (0.2) and modest wind potential (1.7) under 80% cloud cover, consistent with the moderate renewable contribution expected through the day. Trading desks should note the five identified low-price windows between 21:00 AEST today and 06:00 AEST tomorrow, offering savings of $67-76/MWh versus peak for flexible load.
On notices, VIC-specific items remain limited to the 21 July non-credible contingency event on the Ballarat-Berrybank 220kV line (now reclassified as credible, still in effect) and the Alcoa Portland No.1 500kV Bus transfer limit variation from 22 July, both still active. No new load-shedding directions or intervention events are currently in force for