NEM Overview: Thursday 23 July 2026

NEM spot prices sit in a moderate winter morning band, ranging from $52.92/MWh in TAS1 to $78.44/MWh in SA1, with WA1 (not part of the NEM proper) printing $134.45/MWh on much thinner data. NSW1 trades at $68.16/MWh with demand at 9,557 MW — the highest load in the NEM this morning — while QLD1 sits at $63.87/MWh and VIC1 at $58.50/MWh. The NSW1-SA1 spread of roughly $10/MWh reflects SA1's tighter local supply position rather than any interconnector constraint, with the V-SA and V-S-MNSP1 interconnectors both currently binding as Victoria exports 645 MW and 144 MW respectively into SA1 and TAS1. Cold conditions are widespread this morning, with NSW1 at 6.7°C, VIC1 at 7.3°C, and TAS1 coldest at 3.7°C, driving heating demand across all regions and near-zero solar output pre-dawn.

Generation mix shows black coal still anchoring NSW1 (6,383 MW) and QLD1 (5,295 MW), with brown coal covering 4,653 MW in VIC1. Wind is a solid contributor across the mainland — 2,064 MW in VIC1, 1,218 MW in QLD1, 1,205 MW in NSW1, and 462 MW in SA1 — while TAS1 hydro (1,137 MW) and wind (441 MW) push that region's renewable share to 92.7%, the standout in the NEM. Regional renewable penetration otherwise ranges from 26-28% in NSW1 and QLD1 up to 55.6% in SA1, giving a NEM-wide renewable penetration score of 45.6% per gridIQ's composite measure. Carbon intensity mirrors this spread: TAS1 at 0.048 tCO2/MWh, SA1 at 0.247 tCO2/MWh, against 0.64-0.76 tCO2/MWh in the coal-heavy NSW1, QLD1 and VIC1 regions.

Grid stress reads at 55.3 on gridIQ's scale, elevated by SA1's forecast reserve tightness later in the outlook window: AEMO has issued LOR2 and LOR1 notices for SA1 covering 31 July (0000-0400 hrs), with