NEM Overview: Wednesday 22 July 2026

NEM spot prices sit in a moderate winter morning band this morning, with QLD1 at $80.84/MWh, SA1 at $80.44/MWh and NSW1 at $80/MWh essentially converged, while VIC1 trades well below the pack at $37.48/MWh and TAS1 at $46.09/MWh. WA1 (not synchronised with the NEM) is at $91.25/MWh. The VIC1 discount reflects strong local wind output (2,235 MW) combined with brown coal baseload (4,682 MW), with the surplus flowing out via VIC1-NSW1 at 1,283 MW (binding) and V-SA at 488 MW (binding), pulling SA1 and NSW1 prices up from what local generation stacks alone would suggest. Demand is heaviest in NSW1 at 9,096 MW and lightest in TAS1 at 1,205 MW, tracking cold overnight/morning conditions across the southern states — Tasmania is at 3.4°C, Victoria 7.1°C, with heating demand elevated in all regions and solar potential near zero at this hour.

Renewable penetration across the NEM sits at 40.1% on the composite score, but the regional spread is wide: TAS1 is running at 92.67% renewable (1,120 MW hydro, 467 MW wind) and SA1 at 80.33% renewable (743 MW wind, minimal gas), while QLD1 sits at just 8.46% renewable with black coal supplying 5,726 MW of its mix. NSW1 (24.45% renewable) and VIC1 (34% renewable) fall in between, with NSW1 wind at 1,165 MW and hydro at 507 MW supplementing 5,666 MW of black coal. Carbon intensity mirrors this split — SA1 at 0.096 tCO2/MWh and TAS1 at 0.048 tCO2/MWh sit far below QLD1 (0.799 tCO2/MWh) and VIC1 (0.805 tCO2/MWh). Today's outlook shows modest solar potential building in NSW1 and QLD1 (16.5% and 7.6% respectively) as cloud clears through the morning, with wind potential generally soft (3–6%) across the mainland, limiting renewable ramp until midday.

Grid stress reads 58.6, on the elevated side, consistent with the binding interconnector flows and a cold-dri