Regional Outlook — SA1: Saturday 18 July 2026
South Australia's spot price sits at $49.81/MWh at 06:30 AEST, down sharply from the volatile evening peak seen through yesterday's trading, when prices spiked repeatedly into the $130-208/MWh range between 06:35pm and 08:00pm as demand climbed to a daily high near 1895 MW. Overnight prices eased into the $30-70/MWh band before firming again through this morning's ramp, and the current reading confirms SA has settled back into low-cost territory alongside falling demand, now at 1439 MW.
Wind is the dominant generator right now, contributing 1457.5 MW, with GAS_CCGT adding 60 MW, GAS_OCGT at 149 MW, and battery output minimal at 1.98 MW. Solar sits at 0 MW given the after-dark interval. This mix puts renewable penetration at 87.48%, the highest point in the past 24 hours, up from a low of 13.89% around 7:25am when wind output was constrained and demand ramped hard through the morning peak. Carbon intensity has fallen in step, now at 0.0757 tCO2/MWh, well below the 24-hour range that peaked near 0.49 tCO2/MWh during this morning's low-wind, high-demand window.
Predispatch forecasts show prices holding in the $40-90/MWh band through the rest of tonight and into the early hours, before a firm rise emerges through Sunday morning: forecast RRP climbs from $40/MWh at 6:00am to $138/MWh by 8:00am and holds in the $105-138/MWh band through to midday as demand builds and wind potential remains subdued (daily outlook shows just 1.3-1.6 average wind potential for 19 July, with 89% average cloud cover limiting solar). Prices are then forecast to ease back to the $30-50/MWh range through the afternoon and evening. Identified low-cost windows for load-shifting include 05:30-06:30am and 04:00-05:00am AEST, both averaging under $48/MWh with savings near $90-98/MWh versus peak.
On notices, an active AEMO alert flags a short-notice outage of the Tailem Bend 275 kV capacitor bank from 9:15am 18 July, which has invoked constraint set S-TBCP1 affecting the Victoria-SA interconnector; this remains in effect and traders should watch for continued impact on interconnector flows and local p