Regional Outlook — SA1: Saturday 11 July 2026
South Australia's spot price sits at -$1.07/MWh at 06:25 AEST, holding in negative territory after a volatile 24 hours that swung from -$27.75/MWh overnight lows through to a $47.89/MWh peak around 18:50 AEST yesterday evening. Demand currently reads 1391 MW, well down from yesterday's evening peak of 2197 MW. The negative pricing overnight and this morning reflects strong wind output outrunning demand — a pattern that's repeated through the past 24 hours whenever wind generation ramps above 1600 MW.
Generation mix is heavily wind-dominated this morning: wind is contributing 1696 MW, gas CCGT 43 MW, gas OCGT a negligible 0.1 MW, and batteries 3 MW, with solar at zero given the pre-dawn hour. This puts renewable penetration at 97.5%, among the highest levels SA sees, and carbon intensity is correspondingly minimal at 0.012 tCO2/MWh — near the bottom of its typical range. Carbon intensity has tracked between 0.009 and 0.02 tCO2/MWh over the past day, moving inversely with wind output.
Predispatch forecasts show prices staying negative through the SA morning, with -$1 to -$7/MWh expected across 21:00-05:00 AEST target windows, before firming through the morning peak to a forecast $9-13/MWh range between 07:00-11:00 AEST as demand builds. The lowest-cost windows for flexible load are concentrated between 03:00-06:30 AEST, with the load-shifting model flagging an hour around 03:00-04:00 AEST at an average -$6.44/MWh as the best opportunity, saving roughly $19/MWh versus peak pricing. Today's weather outlook supports continued strong wind generation, with wind potential at 16.3% average and cloud cover near 38%, though solar potential remains modest at 7.4% given winter conditions.
On notices, there's nothing SA-specific currently active beyond a resolved contingency reclassification from early July (Penola West – South East and Kincraig – Penola West 132kV lines, cancelled 2 July). The VIC1 Eildon PS – Mt Beauty 220kV line contingency reclassification was cancelled again overnight (issued 14:04 AEST), removing a lightning-related credible contingency that had briefly affected