Regional Outlook — SA1: Friday 10 July 2026
South Australia's spot price sits at -$6.00/MWh at 6:25am AEST, deep in negative territory as strong wind output continues to outstrip demand of 1,412 MW. This is a sharp reversal from yesterday evening's peak of $158.59/MWh at 7:45pm, when demand climbed above 1,800 MW during the evening ramp. Prices have been negative or near-zero since roughly 5:40pm yesterday, a stretch of over 12 hours, reflecting the region's high wind penetration overnight combined with soft overnight demand.
Generation mix is currently wind-dominated: wind is contributing 1,554 MW, gas CCGT 43 MW, gas OCGT a negligible 0.1 MW, and batteries discharging 15.7 MW, with solar at zero given the pre-dawn hour. Renewable penetration sits at 97.35%, and carbon intensity is 0.013 tCO2/MWh — near the lowest readings of the past 24 hours. This compares with intensity above 0.45 tCO2/MWh during yesterday evening's demand peak, when gas generation carried a larger share of the load. The trajectory through the day has consistently tracked wind output: carbon intensity fell from 0.46 tCO2/MWh at 7pm yesterday to sub-0.02 tCO2/MWh by late afternoon as wind ramped and solar contributed through midday.
Predispatch forecasts show prices holding in low single digits to negative territory through the morning: $7.48/MWh by 7am AEST, dipping to -$1.02/MWh around 10am, and staying mostly negative or near-zero through midday, with a modest bump to $38.79/MWh forecast around 6pm as evening demand builds. Five low-price windows are flagged for load-shifting today, each averaging around -$1/MWh with zero carbon intensity, offering roughly $41/MWh savings versus peak — attractive windows for flexible industrial load or battery charging. Weather supports this outlook: wind potential today averages 25.7%, well above tomorrow's 14%, with cloud cover at 67% limiting solar contribution.
On notices, there are no active market interventions or reserve conditions currently in force for SA. AEMO has flagged a Forecast LOR1 (Lack of Reserve Level 1) condition for the SA region from midnight to 2am on 14 July, with a forecast capac