Regional Outlook — SA1: Sunday 12 July 2026
South Australia's spot price sits at -$1.08/MWh at 06:25 AEST, sitting within a deeply negative overnight band that has persisted for most of the past 24 hours. Prices troughed at -$100.09/MWh around 13:10-13:15 AEST yesterday afternoon and dipped as low as -$85/MWh again near 12:50 AEST, with sustained negative pricing driven by wind output that has averaged well above 1,500 MW through the period. Demand currently reads 1,484 MW, up from a low near 1,261 MW in the early hours but below yesterday's evening peak of 2,086 MW.
Generation mix is heavily wind-dominated: wind is contributing 1,586.6 MW, gas CCGT 42.7 MW, gas OCGT just 0.11 MW, and battery output negligible at 0.42 MW, with solar at zero given the pre-dawn hour. This puts renewable penetration at 97.37%, among the highest levels tracked in the region, and carbon intensity correspondingly low at 0.0129 tCO2/MWh. Carbon intensity has tracked in a tight 0.011-0.021 tCO2/MWh band over the past 24 hours, moving inversely with wind output — the softest intensity readings (0.0114-0.0116) coincided with wind troughs mid-afternoon yesterday, a reminder that intensity in SA responds more to wind variability than to demand.
Predispatch forecasts show prices holding negative through the early morning, with the 00:00-05:30 AEST window (13 July) sitting between -$2.65 and -$0.42/MWh, consistent with continued strong wind and soft demand. A firm shift emerges from 06:30 AEST as prices lift to $6.11/MWh and climb through the morning peak, reaching $29.19/MWh by 08:30 AEST and $30.96/MWh at 09:00 AEST as demand ramps and wind potential eases — today's wind potential outlook averages just 11.9% versus recent days' much stronger contribution. A second smaller peak is forecast near 11:00-11:30 AEST ($27-29.70/MWh) before prices soften into the afternoon and turn negative again by 15:00 AEST, aligning with the identified low-price windows overnight into tomorrow's 02:00-06:30 AEST period, offering good load-shifting opportunities with savings of $32-35/