Regional Outlook — SA1: Wednesday 15 July 2026
South Australia's spot price sits at $117.24/MWh as at 06:30 AEST, with demand at 1663 MW. That's up from an overnight low of $41.99/MWh around 11:00 AEST yesterday but well below the volatile 07:00-11:00 AEST window on Wednesday, which saw prices repeatedly spike above $150-186/MWh as demand ramped past 2000 MW. The 24-hour trend shows the classic SA pattern: prices compress into the $60-90/MWh band overnight (00:00-04:00 AEST) as demand falls below 900 MW, then climb sharply through the morning ramp.
Generation mix in the current interval is wind-led at 847 MW, followed by gas OCGT at 421 MW, gas CCGT at 296 MW, and battery output at 35 MW. Solar is at 0 MW, consistent with the pre-dawn interval and today's overcast conditions (81% cloud cover, solar potential effectively 0). Renewable penetration sits at 55.2%, and carbon intensity is 0.2616 tCO2/MWh — a substantial improvement from the 0.44-0.49 tCO2/MWh range seen through Tuesday evening's peak demand period when gas plant carried a larger share of load. Carbon intensity has tracked inversely with wind output all day, dropping to lows near 0.20 tCO2/MWh during yesterday's 17:30-18:00 AEST wind-strong window and rising above 0.47 tCO2/MWh during the low-wind midday period.
Predispatch forecasts flag a sharp price escalation ahead: after easing to the $68-90/MWh range through 02:00-06:00 AEST on low overnight demand, forecast prices jump materially from the 07:00 AEST interval, with a spike to $513.47/MWh forecast for 07:30 AEST and further peaks above $480/MWh at 10:00 AEST and $531/MWh at 12:00 AEST. These predispatch numbers imply tight supply margins during the morning and midday periods today, likely tied to low wind potential (0.1 average) and minimal solar potential (14.6 average) forecast for the day ahead — a low-renewable, high-price setup traders should watch closely. Demand-side load-shifting windows identified for today favour the 02:00-07:00 AEST period, with average prices of $74-90/MWh offering savings of $441-