NEM Overview: Saturday 18 July 2026

NEM spot prices are subdued this morning, with mainland regions clustered between $49.81/MWh (SA) and $65.03/MWh (NSW), while WA sits well outside the NEM proper at $133.53/MWh. VIC is at $52.63/MWh, QLD at $58.62/MWh, and TAS at $50.20/MWh. Demand is moderate for mid-winter: NSW leads at 7,511 MW, followed by QLD (5,791 MW) and VIC (5,544 MW), with SA and TAS both under 1,500 MW. The VIC1-NSW1 interconnector is binding at 1,167 MW (full export limit), and this flow is helping keep NSW prices in check despite its higher demand.

Generation mix reflects the current cold, overcast conditions across the southern states — solar output is negligible in NSW, VIC and SA, with cloud cover between 60-97% and daytime solar potential forecast at just 1.6-3.5% today. Wind is filling the gap in SA (1,458 MW, driving 87.5% renewable penetration and a carbon intensity of just 0.0757 tCO2/MWh) and TAS (hydro-dominated at 1,086 MW hydro plus 91 MW wind, 90.4% renewable). NSW and VIC remain coal-heavy, with black coal at 4,733 MW in NSW and brown coal at 4,734 MW in VIC, holding their renewable shares to 25.9% and 20.1% respectively. QLD's mix includes 5,054 MW black coal alongside 1,134 MW wind, at 19.7% renewable. System-wide renewable penetration sits at 39%, with the grid stress score at 67.3 — elevated, consistent with the binding interconnector constraint and tight reserve margins in TAS earlier this month.

Notable market conditions: a short-notice outage of the Tailem Bend 275 kV capacitor bank in SA (from 0915 hrs 18 July) has invoked the S-TBCP1 constraint set on the SA-VIC interconnector, worth watching for any impact on SA export capacity today. TAS has seen a run of lightning-related contingency reclassifications on Gordon-Chapel St and Farrell-Reece 220 kV lines through mid-July, with an LOR1 reserve condition briefly declared on 13 July (since cancelled) — reserves remain adequate today