NEM Overview: Wednesday 15 July 2026

Spot prices sit in a tight $107-131/MWh band across the mainland this morning, with NSW leading at $130.56/MWh, QLD close behind at $128.73/MWh, VIC at $119.05/MWh, SA at $117.24/MWh, and TAS the lowest of the interconnected regions at $107.78/MWh. WA, operating outside the NEM, prints at $87.63/MWh. The spread between NSW and TAS is just under $23/MWh — narrow by recent standards — indicating no major regional dislocation this morning. Total demand is led by NSW at 9,597 MW and QLD at 7,195 MW, with SA and TAS much smaller at 1,663 MW and 1,293 MW respectively.

Generation mix shows clear regional contrasts. NSW output is dominated by black coal (7,445 MW) alongside strong hydro (1,285 MW) and wind (936 MW), lifting renewable penetration to 24.2%. VIC leans heavily on brown coal (4,572 MW) with modest wind (553 MW) and gas OCGT (472 MW), holding renewable penetration to just 11.3% — the lowest of the mainland regions. QLD's black coal fleet (5,725 MW) is complemented by wind at 955 MW, batteries at 302 MW, and hydro at 315 MW, giving 21.2% renewable share. SA stands out with wind at 847 MW against gas at 716 MW combined (OCGT + CCGT), pushing renewable penetration to 55.2%. TAS is the outlier, running at 87.2% renewable with hydro at 1,262 MW and wind at 149 MW comfortably covering the region's gas OCGT contribution of 207 MW. NEM-wide renewable penetration sits at 38% per the latest market score, with carbon intensity scoring 57.3.

Grid stress reads elevated at 75.2, consistent with an active intervention overnight: AEMO issued a direction in QLD from 12:55 on 15 July, including disconnection of Lilyvale Solar Farm, before cancelling both the direction and the intervention event at 14:10. No interventions remain active this morning. TAS has also seen a run of contingency reclassifications on the Gordon-Chapel St and Farrell-Reece 220kV lines and Sheffield-George Town circuits due to lightning activity over the past three days, with the most recent G