NEM Overview: Monday 6 July 2026
Spot prices sit in a tight $105-117/MWh band across the NEM this morning, with VIC1 leading at $117.39/MWh and SA1 the lowest at $105.08/MWh — a spread of just $12.31, indicating no significant regional stress at present. NSW1 ($114.80/MWh, 8,921.8 MW demand) carries the highest absolute demand in the NEM, followed by VIC1 (6,931.1 MW) and QLD1 (6,775.13 MW). WA1 is reporting $108.75/MWh with no demand figure available this interval.
Generation mix reflects strong wind output through overnight/early-morning hours: SA1 is running on 1,205.5 MW wind against only 346.4 MW gas, pushing its renewable penetration to 77.68% and carbon intensity down to 0.1265 tCO2/MWh — the cleanest region on the grid. TAS1 sits at 100% renewable penetration (hydro-dominant at 1,551.4 MW) with zero carbon intensity. By contrast, VIC1's renewable share is 7.49% with brown coal at 4,672.9 MW carrying the bulk of load, and carbon intensity of 1.0697 tCO2/MWh is the highest in the NEM. NSW1 (20.06% renewable, 0.7025 tCO2/MWh) and QLD1 (17%, 0.7258 tCO2/MWh) are both leaning on black coal (6,395.5 MW and 5,535.8 MW respectively) with wind contributing 617.9 MW and 1,000.4 MW. NEM-wide renewable penetration is tracking at 38.3%.
Weather today points to limited solar contribution across southern states — VIC1 and TAS1 show 0% current solar potential with cold temperatures (2.7°C and 3°C) driving heating demand, while QLD1 and NSW1 have better solar outlooks (14.2 and 5.7 potential respectively) as the day progresses. Wind potential is currently low nationwide (0.1-9.6 range), consistent with the coal/hydro-heavy mix seen right now; SA1's current wind potential reading of 0.2 suggests the 1,205 MW wind output reflects a fading overnight system rather than sustained conditions, worth watching for intraday ramp risk.
On notices: AEMO has issued a Forecast LOR1 in SA