NEM Overview: Thursday 2 July 2026

Spot prices are showing a wide east-west and mainland-south spread this morning. NSW1 sits at $86.68/MWh and QLD1 at $86.10/MWh, both firm on solid overnight demand of 8,175 MW and 6,399 MW respectively. VIC1 and SA1 have dropped into negative territory at -$1.15/MWh and -$1.02/MWh, a function of strong wind output — 3,828 MW in VIC1 and 1,564 MW in SA1 — outpacing local demand of 6,073 MW and 1,558 MW. TAS1 is flat near zero at $0.08/MWh, and WA1 (on its separate settlement basis) is the outlier at $126.56/MWh. The NSW-VIC and VIC-SA interconnectors both triggered negative settlement residue constraints overnight, consistent with the negative pricing pattern in the south.

Renewable penetration across the NEM sits at 49.6% on our composite score, but regional variation is stark. TAS1 is running 100% renewable (all hydro and wind), SA1 at 94.9% with wind supplying the bulk of output, and VIC1 at 57.7% with wind contributing 3,828 MW against 2,923 MW of brown coal. NSW1 renewable share is lower at 33.2%, with black coal at 5,322 MW dominating alongside 1,942 MW of wind. QLD1 is the least renewable-weighted region at 18.5%, with black coal at 5,142 MW carrying the load and wind contributing a modest 516 MW — cloud cover sitting at 100% in QLD1 this morning is keeping solar output at effectively zero, though the forecast outlook shows solar potential building through the day as cloud clears.

Grid stress reads 66.9, elevated but not extreme, and traders should watch SA1 closely today. AEMO has an active Forecast LOR2 declared for SA1 from 07:30 to 11:00 AEST, with capacity reserve requirement of 758 MW against a minimum available of 625 MW — a meaningful shortfall of over 130 MW. This follows several days of AEMO directions to AGL's Torrens Island and Barker Inlet units for voltage control, reflecting tight synchronous generation coverage in SA1 despite the strong wind output. The V-S-MNSP1 (Murraylink) and T-V-MNSP1 (Bassl