NEM Overview: Sunday 28 June 2026

NEM-wide spot prices are sitting in a moderate range at the 6:25 AEST interval, with NSW leading the eastern states at $79.60/MWh on demand of 8,603 MW, Queensland at $69.25/MWh (6,623 MW), Tasmania at $70.20/MWh, and South Australia at $59.55/MWh (1,514 MW). Victoria is the cheapest eastern region at $51.42/MWh despite carrying 5,805 MW of demand, reflecting 2,441 MW of wind output against a backdrop of 3,966 MW of brown coal — the $28.18/MWh spread between Victoria and NSW is notable and is driving 516 MW northward across VIC1-NSW1, which is binding at its export limit. Western Australia sits well above the pack at $96.94/MWh. The VIC1-NSW1 interconnector binding on its export cap is the key inter-regional tension to watch through the morning peak.

NEM-wide renewable penetration is 43.7% per the current gridIQ score. SA is the standout at 96.1% renewable, with 1,471 MW of wind effectively supplying the entire region and exporting 64 MW to Victoria via Heywood and 72 MW via Murraylink. Tasmania is at 100% renewable on 1,066 MW of hydro and 195 MW of wind, though Basslink is sitting at zero flow this interval. Victoria is at 38.7% renewable (2,441 MW wind dominant), Queensland at 32.4% (1,845 MW wind, 119 MW hydro), and NSW at 27.2% (1,072 MW wind, 660 MW hydro, with solar negligible overnight). Grid stress is elevated at 75.8/100, and carbon intensity scores at 0.64 tCO2/MWh in NSW and 0.74 tCO2/MWh in Victoria reflect the coal-heavy overnight dispatch in both regions.

The most consequential active notice is AEMO's Forecast LOR1 for SA across 3–5 July, with reserve shortfalls of up to 52 MW flagged across multiple periods — the deepest being 04/07 where the minimum available capacity falls 36 MW short of the 360 MW requirement across an extended overnight window. These are LOR1 conditions, not yet LOR2, but traders with SA exposure should note the pattern across three consecutive days heading into next weekend. A separate non-conformance notice covers SA battery unit CGBESS01 (43 MW, 05:55–06:00 AEST today), which is minor and time-limited. AEMO has also notified planned MarketNet maintenance disruptions on 6 July (Sydney hub) and 9 July (Brisbane hub), each involving two brief 1–3 second service interruptions — participants with site-to-site VPN connections should review their routing ahead of those windows.

For the remainder of today, solar generation is effectively zero across all regions in the pre-dawn period and will lift only modestly given heavy cloud cover forecast across NSW (100% cloud cover currently), Victoria (91% average today), and SA (80%). Wind conditions are moderate to strong in SA and VIC, which should keep those regional prices contained. The morning demand ramp in NSW and Queensland — both sitting in low single-digit temperatures with heating demand indices of 8.7 and 6.6