NEM Overview: Friday 26 June 2026

Spot prices across the NEM sit in a tight $79–$120/MWh band as at 06:25 AEST, with NSW1 leading at $120/MWh against total demand of 7,959 MW, followed by VIC1 at $115/MWh (5,494 MW) and SA1 at $112/MWh (1,533 MW). QLD1 is the notable outlier at $94/MWh despite carrying 6,029 MW of demand — a $26/MWh discount to NSW that reflects the NSW1-QLD1 interconnector running at its binding import limit of 513 MW southbound, effectively capping how much of Queensland's cheaper dispatch can flow into New South Wales. TAS1 is the lowest at $79/MWh with Basslink flat at 0 MW. The grid stress score of 80.3/100 warrants attention on this Saturday morning, consistent with elevated winter heating demand across all regions — VIC1 heating demand sits at 9.4 and SA1 at 10.6 degree-days.

NEM-wide renewable penetration stands at 35.6%. The variation by region is substantial: TAS1 runs at 100% (1,206 MW hydro, 9 MW wind), SA1 at 62% (948 MW wind, small battery contribution), NSW1 at 27% (1,135 MW hydro, 1,073 MW wind, negligible solar), and QLD1 at 27% (1,509 MW wind, 136 MW hydro, 138 MW battery). VIC1 sits at just 6% renewable penetration this interval, with 4,111 MW brown coal and 654 MW gas OCGT covering the bulk of its 5,494 MW demand — its carbon intensity is the highest on the NEM at 1.07 tCO2/MWh, compared with SA1 at 0.21 tCO2/MWh. Solar is effectively zero across all regions given the pre-dawn interval. Today's outlook for NSW and VIC is heavily overcast (91–100% cloud cover) with maxima of only 11–15°C, keeping solar generation negligible through the day and sustaining heating load.

Two interconnector conditions are worth flagging. The NSW1-QLD1 link is binding at its import limit (-513 MW), constraining southbound flow and contributing to NSW's price premium over QLD. The V-SA interconnector is also at its import limit (-41 MW), limiting flows into SA, while Murraylink (V-S-MNSP1) sits at zero flow. An active non-conformance notice covers Victorian unit WKIEWA1 (29 MW, declared 16:05–16:10 AEST yesterday), and a broader active constraint on the Buronga B Bus 220kV isolator (N-BU_7118) continues to affect V-SA and V-S-MNSP1 transfer limits. AEMO also lifted the Very Fast Contingency FCAS dispatch cap in QLD from 250 MW to 300 MW and in SA from 100 MW to 150 MW effective 25 June, reflecting tighter frequency management requirements when those regions face credible islanding scenarios.

Looking ahead through Saturday, cloud cover across NSW and VIC remains near-total (94% and 65% respectively), so solar uplift will be minimal and heating demand will