NEM Overview: Saturday 27 June 2026

Spot prices across the NEM are sitting in a tight $68–$81/MWh band as of 06:25 AEST, with NSW the most expensive at $80.53/MWh on 7,361 MW of demand and SA the cheapest at $68.29/MWh. The $12/MWh NSW–SA spread is modest given interconnector flows, with V-SA carrying 283 MW into SA and VIC1-NSW1 pushing 166 MW north into NSW. QLD is exporting 898 MW south to NSW via NSW1-QLD1, running near the import limit on that interconnector. No interconnectors are binding at this interval. WA sits at $80.04/MWh on the separate SWIS. Grid stress scores 78.4/100 — elevated for an overnight Sunday, reflecting winter heating demand across all regions; VIC is coldest at 5.4°C with a heating demand index of 12.6.

NEM-wide renewable penetration sits at 39.7%. SA is the standout at 94.98% renewable with wind generating 1,539 MW against total regional demand of 1,405 MW — the surplus is flowing out via interconnector. TAS is at 100% renewable on 987 MW of hydro and 125 MW of wind, with Basslink flat at 0 MW flow. NSW wind is contributing 1,058 MW and QLD wind 1,461 MW, both solid overnight performers. Solar is effectively zero across all regions, as expected pre-dawn. Carbon intensity reflects the mix: SA at 0.025 tCO2/MWh and TAS at zero contrast sharply with VIC at 0.956 tCO2/MWh, where 4,124 MW of brown coal underpins the 5,352 MW load alongside 1,055 MW of wind.

The most actionable notice is the active Forecast LOR2 for SA on Tuesday 30 June, declared under market notice 144342, covering two windows — 08:00–08:30 and 09:30–10:30 — where reserve margins fall 8–13 MW short of the requirement. A cancellation notice (144343) has also been issued, timed at 05:45 AEST today, so traders should confirm current status directly with AEMO before positioning. A separate Forecast LOR1 remains active for SA on 3 July covering the 08:00–10:00 and 16:30–04:00 windows, with reserves 43–52 MW below requirement. SA's wind-heavy profile and interconnector dependence make these reserve conditions sensitive to generation and transmission variability. AEMO also increased the Very Fast Contingency FCAS cap in SA from 100 MW to 150 MW from 25 June, which provides some additional frequency headroom.

Today's outlook is stable for most regions. SA wind potential remains strong at 6.3 average index for Sunday with temperatures topping 15.6°C — demand will stay moderate. VIC clears overnight cloud through the day with solar potential picking up to 10.5, though wind stays light; brown coal will continue carrying the majority of Victorian load. NSW remains largely overcast with max 15.9°C and light winds, meaning coal and hydro hold the dispatch stack. QLD has partial clearing and some solar contribution emerging through the morning peak with max 19.1°C forecast. The Basslink (T-V-MNSP