NEM Overview: Thursday 25 June 2026

NEM spot prices at 06:25 AEST sit in a tight $130–$149/MWh band across the mainland, with Victoria the most expensive at $148.84/MWh against demand of 6,218 MW, followed closely by NSW at $144.84/MWh (8,978 MW). Queensland is the cheapest mainland region at $130.40/MWh despite carrying 6,784 MW of load. South Australia comes in at $135.11/MWh and Tasmania is the clear outlier at $71.94/MWh — roughly half the mainland average — reflecting its hydro-dominant mix (1,014 MW hydro, 85 MW wind) and zero net export on Basslink at present. The $77/MWh spread between Tasmania and Victoria is notable given Basslink is sitting at 0 MW flow; any export resumption would compress that gap quickly.

NEM-wide renewable penetration is 37.8% against a grid stress score of 72.1, reflecting typical mid-winter evening conditions where solar is near zero across all regions and demand is elevated. The generation mix tonight is heavily weighted to coal and gas: NSW runs 5,544 MW of black coal plus 839 MW of combined gas with 1,271 MW of hydro and 898 MW of wind providing the variable component; Victoria leans on 3,994 MW of brown coal with 681 MW of OCGT filling evening demand; Queensland carries 4,907 MW of black coal alongside 1,396 MW of wind and 413 MW of OCGT. South Australia's mix stands out — 970 MW of wind against 769 MW of combined gas (OCGT + CCGT) — giving it the lowest carbon intensity on the mainland at 0.25 tCO2/MWh and 55.8% renewable penetration. Tasmania reports 0 tCO2/MWh at 100% renewable penetration.

Two interconnector conditions are worth watching. NSW1-QLD1 is binding at its import limit of −572 MW, constraining northward flow into Queensland and contributing to the price discount there relative to NSW. V-SA is also binding at −232.93 MW (its import limit), meaning South Australia is pulling maximum capacity from Victoria via that link — the active Buronga B Bus 7118 220kV isolator constraint (N-BU_7118) on the V-S-MNSP1 Murraylink path remains in place and is restricting that interconnector to −54 MW against a tighter import limit of −96.9 MW. Together these two binding constraints are shaping the current regional price spread and leave SA exposed to any further gas dispatch requirement if wind softens.

Today's outlook: all five regions are forecast cold (max temperatures 12–19°C), keeping heating demand elevated through the day. Solar potential across NSW, VIC, and SA remains moderate at best given cloud cover (57–60% average), limiting the midday price relief typically seen in winter. Wind is forecast light across the east coast today, with SA improving on current near-calm conditions but NSW and VIC wind potential staying subdued. The V-SA binding constraint and the Buronga isolator limitation bear close monitoring through the morning peak — any tightening of SA supply with weak wind and constrained interconnector capacity could push SA prices above current levels. MT PASA identifies no low reserve conditions across the NEM for the outlook period, and the previously flagged TAS LOR1 for this morning (0800–0