NEM Overview: Monday 22 June 2026

SA is the standout at $250.02/MWh — more than $100/MWh above NSW ($140.73/MWh) and VIC ($144.08/MWh), and nearly four times Tasmania's $66.83/MWh. The spread reflects a genuinely constrained SA network: Murraylink is on a planned outage with constraint set I-MURRAYLINK active, and the V-SA interconnector is binding at its export limit of 465.2 MW into SA. Murraylink's absence removes an import path at exactly the wrong time, forcing SA to lean heavily on local gas — OCGT at 543 MW and CCGT at 531 MW — with wind contributing only 176 MW. Queensland is the softest market at $121.11/MWh, supported by 6,839 MW of demand met partly by 1,107 MW of battery discharge and 473 MW of wind, with the NSW1-QLD1 interconnector binding at its import limit of -578.5 MW, pushing power south into NSW.

NEM-wide renewable penetration sits at 33%, consistent with a mid-winter overnight/early-morning profile where solar is negligible across all regions. Wind is carrying most of the renewable load: Victoria leads with 1,236 MW, Queensland contributes 473 MW, Tasmania adds 413 MW, and NSW 293 MW. SA's 176 MW of wind is underwhelming relative to installed capacity given near-calm, overcast conditions. Tasmania is 100% renewable on local generation (794 MW hydro, 413 MW wind) and is exporting 81 MW to Victoria via Basslink. Grid stress registers at 70.1 out of 100, and carbon intensity scores 61.9 — both reflecting a winter gas-and-coal-heavy dispatch profile with limited wind and no solar.

The most operationally significant active notice is the AEMO direction to a NSW participant (Market Notice 144313, issued 0815 AEST) to maintain secure system operation, though the direction was cancelled by 0850 AEST (Notice 144316) after sufficient market response. An LOR3 forecast was flagged for SA between 0800–0830 AEST this morning but was not formally declared, with AEMO judging that load shedding was unlikely given available intervention options — a close call worth noting for risk managers. A separate LOR1 forecast for Tasmania on 25 June (0800–0900 AEST, 50 MW shortfall against a 580 MW reserve requirement) remains active and should be monitored through the week.

For today's outlook, SA prices are likely to stay elevated while Murraylink remains out of service and local wind generation stays soft — the daily outlook shows improving solar potential for SA this afternoon (avg 12.3) but minimal wind. NSW and VIC should trade in a moderate $130–160/MWh band through the day as temperatures remain in the single digits to mid-teens, sustaining heating demand without spiking. Queensland's clear skies and strong solar potential (avg 23.5) will drive a midday price dip as rooftop and utility solar ramps, with the evening ramp the key watch point given battery resources that are already well discharged this interval.