NEM Overview: Thursday 6 August 2026
NEM spot prices sit in a tight $115–151/MWh band this morning, with NSW leading at $151.17/MWh against 9,803 MW demand, WA at $149.17/MWh, QLD at $130.51/MWh, VIC at $127.67/MWh, SA at $119.52/MWh and TAS the softest at $115.20/MWh. The $36/MWh spread between NSW and TAS is unremarkable for a winter morning and reflects normal demand and interconnector dynamics rather than any constraint-driven blowout. VIC1-NSW1 flow is running solid at 926 MW northward, T-V-MNSP1 (Basslink) is exporting 405 MW from TAS into VIC, and NSW1-QLD1 shows 910 MW flowing south into NSW — all within limits and non-binding.
Generation mix reflects cold, low-solar conditions across the eastern states this early. NSW is drawing heavily on black coal (6,690 MW) and hydro (1,250 MW), with wind contributing 727 MW; solar is negligible at this hour. VIC leans on brown coal (4,320 MW) with batteries at 551 MW and gas OCGT at 495 MW. QLD's black coal fleet is running 6,140 MW with gas OCGT at 660 MW and wind at 344 MW. SA is running a gas-heavy mix (607 MW OCGT, 603 MW CCGT) with wind at 389 MW. TAS remains the outlier, near-fully renewable with hydro at 1,341 MW and wind at 122 MW.
NEM-wide renewable penetration sits at 35.1%, with sharp regional divergence: TAS at 87.6% renewable and 0.081 tCO2/MWh carbon intensity, against QLD at 12.98% renewable and 0.746 tCO2/MWh, VIC at 17.11% renewable and 0.963 tCO2/MWh, NSW at 26.12%, and SA at 27.5%. Grid stress reads 61.6 and market conditions 53.6 on our composite scoring — elevated but not extreme for a winter morning. Weather outlooks show minimal solar potential across NSW, VIC and TAS today (heavy cloud, cold temps), while QLD gets clear skies and 30% solar potential; wind potential remains low nationally except a pickup forecast for SA and NSW from Monday.
On notices, AEMO reclassified a non-credible contingency to credible in QLD as of 20:31 yesterday, covering the Nebo SVC and Nebo No.1 275/132kV transformer — this remains active and traders should watch for any associated constraint invocation affecting QLD flows today. A NSW automated constraint set (CA_SYDS_59839EB2) on the NSW1-QLD1 interconnector, invoked Tuesday, also remains in force. No active market interventions or directions are currently in place; the SA intervention and Torrens Island directions from Saturday/Sunday were both cancelled by Sunday afternoon.